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Tue, Jan 28, 2003 - Page 12 News List

Economic prospects hang on invasion

UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT Delegates at the World Economic Forum said a quick end to an attack on Iraq would help business, while a lengthy war would push stocks lower

BLOOMBERG , DAVOS, SWITZERLAND

"It's a problem at all our European production sites," he said.

The German economy, which accounts for a third of euro-area GDP, stagnated in the fourth quarter, and "prospects for this year are not good," Caio Koch-Weser, Germany's deputy finance minister, told the annual gathering.

Higher Euro Investors expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates again after trimming its main rate by a half-point to 2.75 percent in December. Sustained high oil prices because of a war might upset that scenario by raising the possibility of accelerating inflation. European rates compare with the US Federal Reserve's benchmark rate of 1.25 percent and rates of close to zero in Japan.

That, in turn, would likely push the euro even higher, "which can only harm growth," said Juergen von Hagen, a professor of economics at the Center for European Integration Studies at the University of Bonn.

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