The world's chipmakers will sell 20 percent more this year than they did last year, according to a Semiconductor Industry Assoc-iation forecast two months ago.
At least one of the trade group's members isn't so sure.
"We're going to see a growth year for electronics in general that does not deviate far from what the overall macroeconomic situation is," Thomas Engibous, Texas Instruments Inc.'s chief executive officer, said in an interview Friday at a trade show in Las Vegas. "The SIA has historically been a little bit more optimistic perhaps than what reality turned out to be."
Two years into a slump in demand for personal computers, communications gear and the thumbnail-sized chips that power them, few companies say they are boosting spending. As bellwethers such as Intel Corp, International Business Machines Corp and Microsoft Corp release quarterly results this week, investors who once dreamed of a quick recovery are again putting off those hopes.
"We don't think it's going to be a sharp takeoff in demand," said Graham Tanaka, who manages US$100 million at Tanaka Capital Management and holds more than 100,000 Intel shares. "The PC area doesn't seem to be taking off yet."
Engibous, who runs the biggest maker of chips for cellular telephones, didn't offer his own forecast. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the US gross domestic product to rise 2.8 percent this year.
The semiconductor trade group forecasts that chip sales will rise to US$169 billion this year. More than two years ago, amid the height of enthusiasm for Internet-related shares, the association predicted 2003 sales of US$319 billion.
Gartner Inc predicts 12 percent sales growth for semiconductors, a projection matched by iSuppli Corp. Chip sales posted their steepest-ever decline in 2001 as companies chopped spending on computer-related gear while their own profits dropped, and the association estimated that sales rose 1.8 percent last year.
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