What's ahead for the coming year in technology? Certainly 2002 was a good year for technology consumers, with prices continuing to fall for most technology items. For technology workers, though, 2002 was mostly bad news -- job layoffs, industry slowdowns, and no killer applications driving job growth and inventiveness. Are better times ahead for everyone? Here are some predictions.
Flat panels
Today, flat-panel monitors are on everyone's wish list. Next year, as prices continue to come down on decently sized flat-panel monitors, the space-saving beauties will become standard with new PCs, especially toward the end of 2003. Already, flat-panel displays in the 15-inch range -- still a bit too small for comfortable work with graphics -- are low-cost options for consumer-level computers.
Broadband is coming
No one likes dial-up Internet access. Broadband is the answer. But up to now, broadband service has been both too expensive and too scarce to make inroads into the mass market.
But several factors are converging to make broadband a reality for many more people in the coming year. First, telecommunications and cable providers are scrambling for business, and there's plenty of capacity -- both factors that will drive costs down for broadband hook-ups. Second, users are feeling that broadband is becoming more of a necessity than a luxury.
Finally, people no longer have to spend oodles upgrading their computers each year. Given a choice between spending money on a new PC and spending money on broadband access, most people will choose the latter.
Microsoft takes a break
2003 could be the first year in some time that we do not see a major new operating system release from Microsoft. That will be a welcome respite for many, as recent versions of Windows have tempted users repeatedly with promises of more stability, more speed, more features -- and sometimes resulted only in new hassles.
Windows 2000 and Windows XP, however, are now gaining a reputation in both businesses and some homes as operating systems that are plenty good enough for now. Many home users still have not upgraded to Windows XP, and when they do, it will be some time before they need to think about upgrading again. XP does most things well for most people.
Slowly improving
In the tech industry, there may never again be the boom that we saw in the late '90s. The Internet is an amazing tool, but myriad business plans built around the idea that anything related to the Internet would grow have proven to be little more than wishful thinking.
As weaker companies continue to disappear, expect to see the strongest players forming dominant positions that will drive growth in the future.
Businesses that buy computer products will have to start spending again in 2003.
Focus on peripherals.
Personal computers are now a mature product. Prices have come down to a point where just about everyone can afford them, and we're no longer at a stage where each new version of Windows requires us to upgrade our entire systems.
Instead, the focus will shift in 2003 to what you can do with peripherals attached to your PC. Digital cameras, pocket computers, personal digital assistants, photograph printers, drawing tablets, and scanners all enhance the usability and fun-factor of today's computers.
Computer users can finally breathe a while without opening their pocketbooks for a new computer.
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