New York confronts transport strike

If the city's transit workers go on strike today and shut down the bus and subway lines as threatened, just about every aspect of New York's economy would be affected, from florists to restaurants to the major department stores.

The effects could ripple through the national economy, as well, analysts say.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg's administration has estimated that a transit workers' walkout would cost the city US$100 million to US$350 million a day -- a figure that includes police overtime, lost productivity, lost retail sales and taxes.

On Saturday, negotiators were trying to reach a three-year contract agreement for the 34,000 transit union workers. Transport Workers Union secretary-treasurer Ed Watt said management had pulled three offers off the table and discussions were at a point they should have reached a month ago.

"We think they have gone from not bargaining in good faith to actually showing bad faith in these negotiations," Watt reporters.

Minutes earlier, Metropolitan Transportation Authority spokesman Tom Kelly called talks ``ongoing and productive.''

Even going out for a meal could be affected if the Transport Workers Union and the Metropolitan Transportation Authority fail to reach agreement before their current contract expires at 12:01am New York time today and the union decides to strike.

"Restaurants will move heaven and earth to stay open," said Chuck Hunt, executive vice president of the State Restaurant Association. "But they can't run them without sufficient employees," many of whom are among the transit system's 7.2 million daily riders.

Large corporations can afford to book hotel rooms close to work for commuting employees, but Hunt said that's not likely for restaurants.

And even if restaurant employees can get to work, Hunt said, deliveries of food and everything else would be hampered by increased traffic and restrictions the city plans on vehicles entering Manhattan during rush hours.

That also would be a blow to Dykstra Florists, in the suburb of Chestnut Ridge. ``We have a lot of deliveries in the city during the holidays,'' owner MariEllyn Dykstra said as she prepared for a wedding in Manhattan.

Large department stores in the city would suffer because tourists and suburban residents would stay away, and because they are heavily dependent on holiday sales, said Jay McIntosh, a retail analyst with Ernst & Young.

Businesses in the city might not be alone in suffering.

"Because of New York's pre-eminence in the national and global financial markets and the corporate world, this will be detrimental to businesses throughout the United States," said Anthony Savino, who teaches corporate law at St. John's University.

The increased traffic would lock up highways in the New York area, slowing the flow of goods to other parts of the country, said Bill Joyce, president of the New York State Motor Truck Association.

"New York is pretty strategically located ... and you can't get from the bulk of states to New England without going through New York somewhere. It's a geographic lock," Joyce said.

The financial community would not be as severely affected. The New York Stock Exchange said it had a plan to deal with a strike but wouldn't elaborate.

"Most of the business that we do can be done, and is going to be done, from outside," said Steve Letzler, spokesman for the Depository Trust and Clearing Corp., which processes Wall Street trades.