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Fri, Mar 22, 2002 - Page 21 News List

US Fed facing a dilemma as it mulls rate hikes

HOW HIGH? Analysts say borrowing costs in the US could rise to 3 percent by year end, up from today's low rate of 1.75 percent

REUTERS , WASHINGTON

In its last credit tightening cycle, which extended from mid-1999 to mid-2000, the Fed bumped up rates six times by a total of 2.75 percentage points to 6.50 percent. All but one of those increases were in quarter-percentage-point increments.

By contrast, only three of the 11 rate cuts in 2001 were quarter-point moves while the other eight were more aggressive half-point reductions.

For his part, Glassman pegged the neutral level of interest rates at around 4.5 percent but said it probably won't be necessary for rates to hit that level until the jobless rate falls from its current 5.5 percent rate to "full employment."

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