It wouldn't be alarmist to ask who will be leading Argentina come January. Or if the leader will have much control over the country.
Argentina is a frightening place to be two days before New Year's Eve. Early this morning, eight days after the fall of the government of President Fernando de la Rua and violence that left 27 people dead, thousands took to the streets of downtown Buenos Aires to protest against the caretaker administration of President Adolfo Rodriguez Saa.
Rioters fought police, stormed the country's Congress and set fire to the main entrance hall before being dispersed by police with water canons.
The idea of the military being more involved in restoring order and running the country after any further outbursts of violence -- unthinkable just a few months ago -- suddenly seems a bit more plausible, though still unpalatable to many here. The implications for Latin America and the rest of the developing world of the deepening Argentine crisis are dire.
In the last week Rodriguez Saa and his supporters in the Peronist party have demonstrated that Argentina's traditional political leaders remain dangerously out of touch with the rest of the country. In normal times such arrogance would just annoy the populace. Now it has enraged them.
The disconnect between Argentina's leaders and the population is similar to the situation in Venezuela just before former military officer and failed coup leader Hugo Chavez was elected president in 1998. One big difference is that Venezuelans had someone to whom they could direct their protest votes, Chavez.
There are no serious contenders in Argentina yet.
Argentines would be loath to see a return of military government after its period of death squads and disappearances in the 1980s.
Then again, if public order is seriously threatened and the police and the administration have trouble maintaining control, there may be calls for the military's help.
Argentines have been battered by more than three years of economic malaise, topped by a debt default declaration last weekend, capital controls, and talk of a currency devaluation.
Nearly a fifth of all Argentines are unemployed while a third cannot meet basic nutritional needs.
Hours before last night's protests downtown, residents of the lower-middle-class suburb of Ciudadela feared there would be more violence in their neighborhood, perhaps as soon as New Year's Eve.
Ciudadela was among neighborhoods hardest hit by last week's violence.
"People have no money," said Miguel Campos, as he roasted eight chickens at the barbeque stand he manages a block from one of the looted supermarkets. "Everyone is afraid it's going to happen again," he says.
Campos sold 60 roasted chickens last year on Christmas Eve.
This year he sold 24. Wholesalers raised the price of chicken by more than 50 percent over the last week because they expect a devaluation, he says.
Many analysts don't expect a financial contagion on the scale of the Russian and Asian financial crises in 1997 and 1998.
Yet there may be another type of contagion: a backlash against efforts of the last decade to open developing economies and make them more competitive while reducing the role of the state.
Populist politicians throughout the region are pointing to Argentina now and saying, "I told you so."
One of them is the leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the leading candidate for the presidency of neighboring Brazil in elections slated for October. He and two other of the four leading candidates have mentioned default on Brazil's more than US$250 billion of public debt as an option.
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