Even the giant discounters, which have been roaring past the department stores and apparel chain stores, had sales that came in on the low end of Wall Street's expectations. Wal-Mart Stores, which had a record US$1.25 billion in sales the day after Thanksgiving, had year-to-year sales growth for November of 4.3 percent, compared with expected sales growth of 4 to 6 percent.
One exception to the dismal environment was the ever-glowing Kohl's. The department store/discount store hybrid proved that it was possible to grow by selling apparel, racking up a nearly 26 percent sales gain for the month, substantially better than the 18 percent growth it had predicted due to the extra week of sales.
Although there was no shortage of reasons for bad sales, unusually balmy temperatures were widely blamed for depressing consumer interest further than had been anticipated. "It ruins the atmosphere," said George Strachan, an analyst with Goldman Sachs. "It is hard to get excited about hanging Christmas lights and present shopping when it is 72 degrees."
Bad weather is a perennial excuse when retailers miss sales targets, but given the magnitude of the swing in temperatures this year, there may be some justification. On average, the weather across the nation was 8.51 degrees higher in November than it was last year and 4.88 degrees higher than normal, according to the National Climatic Data Center.
In New York, where temperatures hit a record high on Thursday, November temperatures were 5.2 degrees higher this year than in 2000, and in Denver, an important market for coat and outerwear makers, they were 16.8 degrees higher than last year and 8.1 degrees higher than normal.
"The weather has been a real demon this year," said Richard N. Baum, senior retail analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston.
Baum and others say stores like American Eagle Outfitters, Gap, Abercrombie & Fitch, Land's End, L.L. Bean and other retail companies that feature a wide selection of coats, scarves, mittens and hats will have a hard time if the weather doesn't change soon.
"The weather definitely had an impact on our business in November, which was flat when we had expected an increase compared to last year," said Michael Collins, a spokesman for Recreational Equipment Inc, which makes and sells outdoor wear.
Eventually, it will get colder, but analysts doubt that a reversal of fortune for sellers of apparel, like department stores and speciality chains, is anywhere on the horizon. "We will see a continuation of the trends into 2002," said Strachan. "The consumer will spend, just not in the malls."
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