The money-changers of Kabul understand the forex market as well as any broker on Wall Street, which is why they sit these days with ears glued to crackly portable radios following the historic Afghan conference currently unfolding in Germany.
If the talks succeed in forging a broad-based government to replace the crumbling Taliban regime, the Afghani, the local monetary unit, will, they say, strengthen markedly on the unofficial money market.
If the talks fail, the Afghani will plunge.
Call it right and they stand to make small fortunes.
"Today the exchange rate to the dollar is 37,000 Afghanis," said Lala Agha Azizi, a money-changer who has set up near Kabul's Da Shezada market and whose radio is constantly tuned to the news.
"If the conference fails, I foresee that it will take more than 70,000 Afghanis to buy a dollar."
During previous turbulence, the Afghani fell as low as 75,000 to the greenback.
Lala Agha has become accustomed in recent days to wild fluctuations in the Afghani's fortunes -- the defeat of the Taliban in the north, the taking of Kabul by the Northern Alliance, the arrival of US marines near Kandahar.
"Everyone uses the Afghani, even though they are wary of it," he said, adding, however, that most Afghans try to buy the Pakistani rupee or the US dollar as these provide better hedges than the yo-yoing Afghani.
Nemat Ullah, a money-changer who wanders perpetually through the Afghan capital laden down with money that looks more valuable than it actually is, has been making a living speculating on the highs and lows of the Afghani for the past three years.
The Da Shezada market is little more than a warren of moneychangers, separated by walls of banknotes. Billions of Afghanis change hands here daily.
There are, Nemat said, about 3,500 people like him in Kabul.
"The competition is fierce. I offer 37,000 Afghanis to the dollar and another offers 37,700."
Because of the political turbulence, Afghans rely on the traditional money-under-the-mattress form of banking. "There is no real government, nor banks," Nemat said. "People have no confidence."
The few financial institutions that do exist in Afghanistan have been systematically plundered during the past 20 years of warfare.
Just 17 days ago, the governor of Nangarahar province allegedly emptied the entire cash reserve of the central bank of Jalalabad before fleeing to Pakistan.
"In 1992 I had 100,000 Afghanis in a bank in Kabul," Nemat said. "At the time it was an enormous sum because the exchange rate was 300 Afghanis to the dollar. Then the fighting broke out, the bank was plundered and I never saw my money again."
With the rise and fall of the Afghani, he said, he can "sometimes win a lot, sometimes lose a lot, in just one day."
As in Wall Street and London, he said, "it is essential to understand the political situation, above all else."
RSS