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Consumers are buying beer, not Bollinger

It is the question being asked not just in the sepulchral corridors of the Treasury, but in every corner of the globe: can consumer spending save the world from a recession? With manufacturing in negative growth in the US and the UK, the services sector seems to be the last line of defense against the "R" word.

And so far the effects of terrorism and an economic downturn have had only a limited effect on how Joe and Joanna Public spend their money. British retail sales in September remained relatively buoyant, rising by 0.2 percent on the previous month and slipping only 0.1 percent in October. Last week the US, which so often influences how other economies will perform, reported a 7.1 percent increase in retail sales in October, the highest rise on record, thanks largely to cheap credit deals from the big car manufacturers.

But these figures could be misleading. The signs are that consumers are starting to change their spending habits as they see unemployment figures rise and a seemingly endless stream of profits warnings pound the stock market. The worry is that a brief slip in consumer confidence in the wake of Sept. 11 is now giving way to much more profound concerns raised by a deteriorating economy.

Stark distinction

As such consumers, both in the US and the UK, seem to be making a stark distinction. While they are happy to continue buying core goods and services, they are increasingly reluctant to shell out on the more discretionary spending -- such as leisure and fashion - -- in such uncertain times. The luxury goods market, in particular, is reeling from a drastic downturn as upmarket shoppers keep their hands in their pockets. Over in the US, jeweller to the stars Tiffany & Co, last week reported third-quarter sales down a worrying 10 percent on the same period the previous year.

Back in Europe, luxury goods house LVMH, which owns labels such as Givenchy and Dior, issued its third profits warning in two months.

The French company said that October's sales were down 5 percent, having fallen by 8 percent in September. Champagne sales are thought to have fallen by as much as 10 percent. LVMH said it expected operating profits for the current year would be between 10 and 15 percent below last year's total of US$2.8 billion. A few months ago LVMH had been predicting double digit earnings growth.

The French luxury goods market -- along with the UK, Europe's most important -- is having a torrid time overall. Sales on the luxury floors of department store Printemps are down 25 percent since Sept. 11.

Meanwhile Swiss rival Riche-mont, whose brands include Cartier, said it expects its earnings for the six months to September to be down 20 percent. Ireland's Waterford Wedgwood Ireland, announced 1,400 jobs were to go after it unveiled a 4.5 percent drop in sales.

Overall, the European luxury goods sector is down nearly 30 percent on the year to date, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley.

Feeling the pinch

Luxury hotels are feeling the pain, too, not just because people are staying put after Sept. 11 but because of the wider economic downturn. Leisure analysts Pannell Kerr Forster reported that London hotel bookings were down 20 percent in September. Last week the Hilton Group revealed room rates at its five-star hotels had plummeted by almost a third during September and October.

"Even before Sept. 11 there was evidence of a downturn in the upper end of the market," said Melvin Gold of Pannell Kerr Forster. New figures out from Andersen Consulting show that occupancy levels in London hotels fell 22.5 percent in October.

But, worryingly, the signs are that the problems at the top end of the market are starting to filter down to other sectors which are not at risk from the threat of terrorism. Analysts at Merrill Lynch are warning that this year will be the music industry's worst ever. The bank predicts that global music sales will fall more than 10 percent this year, a bigger drop than during the recession of the early 1980s.

The UK music market, which has hitherto remained immune from the slowdown, now seems to be showing signs that it, too, is feeling the pinch. According to soon to be released figures from the British Phonographic Industry, music sales fell 4.2 percent in the third quarter of this year.

And even the UK housing market is showing signs of a slowdown. House prices fell in October for the first time since February, according to Nationwide. The building society said that the price of the average home fell 0.5 percent to US$130,835.

assigning blame

Undoubtedly some companies and sectors are suffering from what they hope will be a short-term dip in consumer spending brought on specifically by Sept. 11. Last week, Rank Group, for example, warned that full year profits at its Hard Rock chain of restaurants would be down by 15 percent, simply because tourists were staying away.

But many other firms cannot pin the blame on terrorism. Clothing giant Gap last week unveiled its first loss in more than 10 years.

Like-for-like sales in its stores were down 17 percent in the three months to September, suggesting the economy was already hurting consumers long before the attacks.

Many experts, however, believe it will be a few more months before a true picture emerges.

"The big question is how are people going to react next year? You can picture a scenario where you have a good Christmas and January but once you go into February there is more uncertainty. People who have lost their jobs will realize they shouldn't spend their pay-offs and they'll batten down the hatches," said Richard Boys-Stones, a partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers.

The consumer may be king. But don't bank on him being a savior.
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