Sales had already been weakening. In a report yesterday, senior economists at Pricewaterhouse-Coopers LLP forecast the worst holiday season for retailers since the 1991 recession. They said core retail sales, which exclude autos and gasoline, would increase 2.5 percent in the fourth-quarter buying season, compared with 4.5 percent a year earlier.
The attacks came "at the worst possible time for the economy," First Call's Hill said, adding that the chances have diminished for a recovery as early as the first quarter.
First Call, a Boston-based research firm, tracks analysts' estimates. Analysts had forecast a profit increase of 8.1 percent for the first quarter, and Hill said that figure is also in doubt after the attacks. He said it's too early to give any estimate.
"For airlines and hotels and so forth, we're likely to get some cuts in estimates over the next week or so, but it may take a month before analysts start cutting things like retailing, homebuilding and autos," Hill said.
Some analysts are relatively optimistic. Robert Blake, a senior economist at Royal Bank of Scotland in New York, said there may be "depressed activity levels in September, but we expect things to bounce back in the following months."
A few industries may be safe. Defense stocks such as Lockheed Martin Corp and Raytheon Co, for instance, may benefit from spending increases after the attacks. Companies that make security products such as Tyco International Ltd. could also get a boost.
While Hill and other analysts said oil prices may eventually rise, they haven't soared yet. Brent crude oil for October settlement fell US$1.04, or 3.6 percent, to US$28.02 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange today in London after OPEC pledged to keep supplies flowing. The price had risen 5.9 percent to US$29.06 on Wednesday.
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