A panel of celebrities from the world of personal computing said disputes over Internet access may be the only negative factor in an otherwise bright future for the PC.
"I think desktop PCs will be with us for the next five to 10 years because the price performance is so attractive," said Dave Bradley, one of the engineers who invented International Business Machines Corp's first PC.
"Absolutely, it's not going to go away."
PHOTO: AP
Bradley's comments came at a panel of industry stars, including Microsoft Corp Chairman Bill Gates and Intel Corp Chairman Andy Grove, who discussed the impact of the first PC built 20 years ago by IBM.
The PC industry is in a slump and there are some predictions that growth won't return to the same levels as in the past decade and that wireless devices -- tablet or handheld PCs -- might become the next big product.
A roadblock to future growth for the PC won't be lack of new hardware or software, Groves said. Rather, competing interests to control telecommunications access to the Internet as well as government regulations may damage the PC industry.
"It is capable of keeping the genie from expanding out of the bottle and from moving to the next level," Grove said.
The panel, gathered at the Tech Museum of Innovation in San Jose, California, attracted over 300 people, including some of the most famous names in the PC industry. At one table alone, Gateway Inc founder Ted Waitt talked with Compaq Computer Corp Chairman and Chief Executive Michael Capellas and with Hewlett-Packard Co CEO Carly Fiorina.
The first PCs were introduced in the 1970s, most notably by Apple Computer Inc. IBM built a PC using off-the-shelf components and introduced it on Aug. 12, 1981.
"When IBM introduced the PC, I thought, this is going to change the world," said panelist Rod Canion, who went on to co- found Compaq in 1982.
"If ever there was a time to start a company, [that] was the time."
Because Intel and Microsoft retained the rights to their products, they were able to sell them to competing makers such as Compaq and Dell Computer Corp, both of which have passed IBM in annual PC sales.
In addition, Intel and Microsoft have gone on to take dominant market shares and boast market capitalizations that top even IBM's.
Gates said that IBM "was somewhat reasonable" in the early 1980s in letting his company sell its programs to other PC makers.
Other panelists suggested that IBM made a mistake and by the time it realized it had done so, it was too late for IBM to control the PC industry.
Others on the panel included Dan Bricklin, best known for co-developing VisiCalc, the first electronic spreadsheet, David Bunnell, founder of PC Magazine, Mitchell Kapor, designer of the Lotus 1-2-3 program, and Ray Ozzie, creator of Lotus Notes, a document-sharing system eventually used by 75 million people.
The panelists told personal stories, such as Bradley, who is credited with inventing the "control - alternate - delete" function as a way to restart a PC.
"It was a five minute job in creating it, but I didn't realize I had created a cultural icon," he said. Then looking at Gates and alluding to Windows' infamous problem of freezing, he added, "I may have invented it, but Bill made it famous."
For his part, Gates talked about how he had to convince his parents he dropped out of college so as not to be left behind in the PC revolution.
"It was nice to get in ahead of time," Gates said.
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