When that happens, some folks will still use a desktop PC, but they'll be viewed as quaint anachronisms, as typewriters and rotary phones are viewed today.
But the keyboard and monitor won't be easy to replace.
Experts say they'll stick around for a while, preventing computers from shrinking much beyond the size of a handheld. New inputs, like the writing stylus used in tablet PCs and PDAs, can't yet challenge the keyboard.
In 10 years or so, science might combine artificial intelligence and voice recognition technology into an input that surpasses the keyboard. Other options could track the movement of eyes, fingers or hands. Some predict that computer components will be implanted into the body and communicate through nerve connections.
"We're at a kind of plateau now," said Clay Shirky, a New York-based computer consultant. "It doesn't matter how small chips get if you have to have a keyboard and screen. The next step is when we get to implants, when we talk directly through the synapses."
Alongside hardware, computer tasks will change.
Files will be shared and scattered across network storage machines, not personal hard drives. A computer's status will slip to that of the telephone, a mere access device, said Tim O'Reilly, a Sebastapol, California-based technical publisher.
Microsoft's vision for home computing finds images, music, video and information coursing from a central server -- probably hidden in a closet, like a water heater -- to TVs, speakers, monitors and other devices scattered inside the home, like a message panel on the front of the refrigerator, said Mundie. The company's .NET, the system for developing Internet technology that works with most other computing devices, is its first step.
Processor speed is another variable to watch.
In 1981, the IBM PC ran at 4.77MHz. Today's top-end machines whirr at 1.8GHz -- hundreds of times faster.
Today's fastest supercomputers approximate the brain of a mouse. In 20 years, machines will have almost as much computing power as people.
"Before 2010, we will have computers with human brain capabilities," Mayer said.
By 2021, large portions of the human brain may also be replicated in software, Kurzweil said.



