Those who think Beijing's US$20 billion 2008 Olympic building plan is a waste should try swimming a lap of the pool built for the 1990 Asian games.
More than 200 swimmers crammed into the 50-meter pool last Thursday, shelling out 40 yuan (US$4.80) an hour for the privilege.
PHOTO: AP
"It's not that expensive," said Li Hua, a chemistry professor about to take a dip with her daughter and husband. "Taking care of your body is very important."
Built for US$550 million, the Asian Games Village relied on the growing affluence of Beijing's 13.8 million people to ensure it avoided the post-games embarrassment of empty, money-losing sites seen in Montreal and most recently in Sydney. The average Beijinger earned US$2,700 last year, double eight years ago, and analysts say income may double again by 2008.
"It's very likely that Beijing can double its per capita income in the next eight years," said Jun Ma, senior economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Hong Kong. "There will be a natural tendency for Chinese and Beijing citizens to spend more on Olympic-related goods and services."
Sydney's Olympic Park became a ghost town after the torch went out last year. Shares in Stadium Australia Group have fallen 60 percent so far this year as the venue manager struggled to pull other events. In Montreal, site of the 1976 Olympics, residents will be paying for the city's once-futuristic US$650 million stadium for another 10 years.
The Asian Games complex, which will also host swimming, tennis and field hockey events in 2008, bustles by comparison.
At the main gate, the archway sign identifying the site as the "National Olympic Athletic Center" has been obstructed by one advertising the "China International Beer Festival." To the east, a new branch of Beijing Trust Securities Co is going up. In the south, Beijing's largest new-car market sells everything from DaimlerChrysler AG's Mercedes Benz sedans to domestically produced Volkswagen AG Jettas.
"The auto market sells as many as 8,000 cars every month, and my company sells 60 to 70," said Le Weidong, general manager at Beijing Changcheng Village Automobile Trading Co. "I can earn 2 to 3 million yuan each month."
Beijing's Olympic Green is on the edge of the inner city to the north. By contrast, Homebush Bay, site of Stadium Australia, is in the suburbs.
Much of the US$20 billion Beijing plans to spend upgrading its roads, subways, waterworks and stadiums for the 2008 games would have been spent even if the city hadn't won the International Olympic Committee's blessing on Friday to host the 2008 games, Deutsche Bank's Ma says.
For now, Beijing residents make do with the ageing Worker's Stadium, site of show-trials during China's 1966 to 1976 Cultural Revolution. The city's soccer team, Beijing Guo'an, plays its home games there.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc estimates infrastructure-related spending on the Games will add a third of a percentage point to China's economic growth from next year until 2008.
In a report, Fred Hu, the firm's top economist for China, says hosting the games will "spark a multiyear infrastructure spending boom," which should lay the foundations for strong growth after the games are over.
Several global multinational firms stand to gain. Canadian companies SNC Lavalin Group Inc and Bombardier Inc hope to dig the tunnels and supply the trains and signaling equipment for the 400 kilometer subway and light rail plan Beijing plans to build.
A host of Hong Kong-listed firms specializing in tourism or Beijing property interests may also benefit, Goldman says, singling out Travelsky Technology, Shangri-La Asia, Beijing North Star Co, China Resources Enterprises, China Resources Beijing Land and Beijing Enterprises Holdings would benefit most from the Games, Goldman said.
Others disagree. A report by real estate firm Jones Lang Lasalle Inc, which examines the impact of previous Olympics on retail and office property markets, says that any boost to local prices will be confined to the Olympic Village area.
"The potential benefits to real estate markets can be significant, yet history has revealed that the magnitude of these paybacks is varied," the report said.
What's more, the emergence of China's leisure class doesn't necessarily translate into packed stadiums and vibrant local sports teams. Beijing Guo'an plays to sparse crowds at Worker's Stadium, hampered by the fact that residents can watch the games at home for free.
"People didn't grow up with their dads taking them to games," said David Cantalupo, managing director in China for ESPN Star Sports, owned by Walt Disney Co and News Corp. "So it's not culturally imbedded the way it is [in the US]."
Cantalupo said the Olympics may be just what is needed to nurture sports in China. That would boost viewership of his channel, which now reaches 60 million homes in China.
The country has already imposed a tax on bank deposits and declared three weeklong public holidays last year to encourage consumers to spend more and spur growth in the domestic economy.
One person who is not happy about the site is cardealer Le. His business on the Olympic Green will probably be demolished.
"It will be moved to a faraway place where we won't get as much business," Le said. "Who will go that far to buy cars?"
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