The famous black taxis of London are a protected but endangered species.
Only two companies now make the vehicles that comply with London's strict taxi regulations, and both have had recent fiscal problems.
Metrocab (UK) Ltd, the smaller of the two, went into receivership in February this year. A few weeks later, the other, Manganese Bronze Holdings, reported an interim pre-tax loss that it attributed largely to problems at its London Taxis International subsidiary, which makes the TX1.
Since then, Manganese Bronze forecast a profitable full year, saying it expects demand for new taxis to recover. And last week the receivers of Metrocab said its assets had been bought by Kamkorp Europe -- although details have not been released.
Still, the situation for these two manufacturers remains precarious. They now face the threat of competition from other companies who want their products used as London taxis. The new models are adapted from standard Fiat and Mercedes-Benz minivans, which are significantly cheaper than the Metrocab and TX1. The conversions sold by Cab Direct and the Jubilee Automotive Group cost about US$7,000 less than a traditional London taxi, which sells for about US$40,000. Minivan-based taxis are already used in many smaller British cities.
In London, though, any company trying to enter the taxi market is up against the conservative forces of the Public Carriage Office, a body that has regulated the capital's taxis since they were, literally, horse powered.
The regulations of the agency are precise and legendary. For example, a London taxi has to be able to turn between curbs only 7.5m apart -- a legacy of the many ancient lanes in the city. No other vehicle the size of the official taxis (the dimensions are also highly regulated, of course) can perform this maneuver.
Nevertheless, Rodney Lewis, publisher of Taxi Globe, a trade magazine, said he expected the unofficial newcomers to appear on London streets. "I'd be surprised if they were not put on trial over the next year or so, just to test public reaction," he said. "That doesn't mean they would get approval, of course."
But the taxi market has already been transformed by a dramatic increase in unofficial minicabs. These are standard sedans, usually the worse for wear, mostly unregulated and frequently operated without passenger insurance.
While minicabs have multiplied, the number of traditional taxis has remained more or less stagnant. Dave Allen, a partner in a firm that runs a fleet of 100 traditional London cabs, said: "In 1960, there were 9,000 cabs in London and no minicabs. Today there are around 19,000 cabs and anything from 60,000 to 80,000 minicabs. If the cab trade had expanded like it should, those minicabs wouldn't exist today."
The root of the problem is a shortage of licensed drivers who have completed "the knowledge" -- an arduous and protracted examination that requires total recall of the city's intricate roads and landmarks. Not enough candidates have been able to complete the test.
The resulting driver shortage is evident to anyone who has tried to find a cab in London at night. With negligible financial rewards for a cabdriver to work night shifts, public transport or unregulated minicabs are the only options.
The pressure is growing to find more regulated drivers -- which, by implication, means lowering standards -- and to make cabs more affordable to buy. None of this is good news for the traditional taxi.
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