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Mon, Jun 18, 2001 - Page 21 News List

Low inflation clears Fed for rate cut

US ECONOMY Modest CPI figures in May and poor earnings forecasts by technology companies may push the Federal Reserve to lower rates by 50 basis points

By Caroline Baum  /  BLOOMBERG , WEST TISBURY, MASSACHUSETTS

Steve Cecchetti, professor of economics at Ohio State University and an avowed inflation hawk -- "Hi, my name is Steve, and I'm an inflation hawk," he writes in his monthly inflation update -- wonders where is the moderation in inflation everyone is talking about.

"Until Friday we have seen very little evidence that such a disinflation is underway," he writes.

The annual increase in the core CPI decelerated from 2.7 percent in March to 2.5 percent in May.

Stability is good, even at a high rate. With the Fed stepping on the accelerator so aggressively -- a 50 basis-point rate cut at the end of June would make it 300 basis points in a span of six months -- it's not clear there will be much breathing room between the time a recovery takes hold and the time the Fed has to start raising rates.

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