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Mon, May 28, 2001 - Page 21 News List

`Pearl Harbor' set to earn big bucks

BOOM OR BUST?Despite what hollywood pundits may think, the World War II epic could rake in as much as US$1.5 billion in ticket sales globally, analysts forecast

BLOOMBERG , LOS ANGELES

Krutick estimates Pearl Harbor could add US$0.02 to US$0.25 a share to Disney's earnings over the next several years.

Wang sees the film adding US$0.02 a share to Burbank, California-based Disney's earnings over the next five years.

"It's an important film and it will do very well, but it's not something that you will pile into the stock because of it," Vogel said.

Pearl Harbor is currently the highest-priced film title on the Hollywood Stock Exchange at US$200, ahead of Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, which is trading at US$188, and Star Wars: Episode II at US$168. The price indicates what visitors to the site expect a film will gross in its first four weeks.

Analysts said Pearl Harbor may not be able to match Titanic's box-office gross because the new film isn't likely to have strong "word of mouth" among moviegoers. Pearl Harbor probably won't see the same kind of repeat business among young fans that led to the long-running success of Titanic, they said.

"It's highly unlikely that this will film go anywhere near the Titanic's level," said Dave Davis, a film industry analyst at Houlihan, Lokey, Howard & Zukin in Los Angeles. ET the Extra-Terrestrial and Titanic were "two movies that defined new levels of performance." Moviegoers, surveyed after seeing Pearl Harbor in New York City, had mixed reactions.

"Long and boring," said Matt Anchondo, 30, who saw the movie at the AMC Empire 25 in Times Square. "It would be much better with a remote."

The bombings were Carlos Garcia's favorite part of the movie. "It's good," said Garcia, 23, of Manhattan, who said he would tell friends to see it.

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