US exit would spark conflict: Musharraf

AFGHANISTAN PROXY WAR::Academic Abdul Basit said that the former Pakistani leader is ‘quite influential within Pakistan’s military,’ and added: ‘Kabul is not unified’


Sat, Oct 06, 2018 - Page 6

Former Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf said that a proxy war between nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan would erupt in Afghanistan if US forces exit the country.

Musharraf, who came to power in a 1999 coup before stepping down amid protests against his rule in 2008, said Pakistan wants a peaceful solution to the 17-year conflict in Afghanistan, but he also accused India of using the nation as a base to foment separatist insurgencies and attacks in Pakistan.

In interviews after leaving office he has hinted that Islamabad used proxy forces in Afghanistan to counter India.

“You can expect a proxy war in Afghanistan if the US leaves Afghanistan, definitely, 100 percent,” Musharraf said in an interview at his penthouse apartment in Dubai, where he lives in self-exile.

War-ravaged Afghanistan has long been a battleground for the broader geopolitical rivalry between India and Pakistan.

Musharraf’s comments underscore the fear of Indian encirclement that motivates Pakistan and its military, which has ruled the country for almost half of its 71-year existence.

US President Donald Trump has pushed for New Delhi to take on a larger role in Afghanistan as the Washington looks to exit it longest war.

Musharraf said “India should remain out” of Afghanistan, which Pakistan sees as its area of influence.

He also said that even if US forces depart after a negotiated settlement with the Taliban, India and Pakistan would likely move in by supporting rival Afghan factions.

“The situation will return to Taliban versus Northern Alliance, and in that Pakistan and India will fight a proxy war,” he said, alluding to a military coalition that fought against the Taliban in the 1990s and early 2000s.

The Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs declined to comment.

Indian officials, who frequently blame Pakistan for cross-border attacks in Afghanistan and India, have long said their presence in Afghanistan is focused on development and infrastructure.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with his Pakistani counterpart on Wednesday and “emphasized the important role Pakistan could play in bringing about a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan,” US Department of State spokeswoman Heather Nauert said in a statement.

Pompeo “agreed that there was momentum to advance the Afghan peace process and that the Afghan Taliban should seize the opportunity for dialogue.”

However, Afghanistan Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah told an audience last month in New York that he had seen no change in Pakistan’s policies toward the Taliban since Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan took office after elections in July.

Pakistan continues to wield “significant” influence over the Taliban, Abdullah said, although he added the two countries are working together.

Musharraf’s views are “still quite influential within Pakistan’s military — not politically — but on the security issues nobody knows Afghanistan more than him,” said Abdul Basit, a research fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

Pakistan and India’s conflict is but one “fault line” playing out in Afghanistan and “the government in Kabul is not unified, there are pockets of influence of each country,” Basit said.

Frail and recovering from an unspecified illness, 75-year-old Musharraf said it was unlikely he would return to Pakistan any time soon to face what he calls “politically motivated” criminal cases.

Those include treason charges for suspending the constitution and a trial over the assassination of former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto, in which Musharraf was named an absconder last year.

Bhutto’s son, Bilawal, blames Musharraf for her death in December 2007.

Musharraf has previously said he would return to Pakistan if his security could be guaranteed.

Musharraf has tried multiple times to re-enter politics, with limited success. Under the cloud of his legal issues, he was barred from contesting Pakistan’s elections in July. When he last returned to Pakistan in 2013, he was placed under house arrest the following year. He was eventually allowed to leave in 2016 to seek medical treatment abroad.

The former general remains a divisive figure in Pakistan. Some praised him for ushering in a level of economic stability, but many saw him as a US puppet after the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks.

Musharraf also drew criticism for constitutional and human rights violations, and was blamed for failing to tackle widespread violence in the later years of his rule.

With former cricket star Khan breaking the rotational and dynastic grip of Pakistani politics, Musharraf said he backed the current government and there was no need for him to return as a “third force.”

Pakistan’s military also “see him as a liability, they don’t want him to return to the country — he’s a political problem and a security issue for them,” Basit said.

“Musharraf has this habit of shooting from the hip, his interviews at times put them in a really awkward position,” he said. “They really want him to stay in Dubai.”