Voters headed to the polls in Argentina yesterday after an election campaign dominated by the economy with center-left Peronist candidate Alberto Fernandez favored to oust market-friendly Argentine President Mauricio Macri.
Opinion polls pointed to a crushing victory for the 60-year-old Fernandez, whose running mate is former Argentine president Cristina Kirchner. Some put his lead at almost 20 points, which would be enough to win the presidency outright in the first round.
“I’m looking forward to Monday, Fernandez and Cristina are coming back,” said Sergio Esteves, a flower-seller in central Buenos Aires.
The likely return to power of protectionist Peronists comes amid a lengthy recession and a debt crunch, raising market fears of a possible default on a US$57 billion IMF loan.
The peso fell 5.86 percent in the week before the elections, and the week ended with 65 pesos worth US$1.
Fernandez has insisted his government would not default, but rather seek to renegotiate the terms of the loan, and sought to reassure voters that their bank deposits would be safe under his administration.
Martin, a 50-year-old filmmaker, on Friday said he did not believe Fernandez.
He was carrying a suitcase full of cash and intended to buy US$3,000 at a busy foreign-currency exchange in Buenos Aires.
“It’s the same old story. My parents lost everything in the corralito. I don’t want it to happen to me,” he said, referring to the 2001 default crisis when people were blocked from withdrawing their money.
Since Fernandez’s crushing victory in August primaries, which made him the favorite for the presidency, Argentine savers have withdrawn about US$12 billion from their accounts.
Whoever wins must reach a consensus to navigate a polarized Argentina out of the crisis.
“This isn’t so much a Fernandez win as a Macri loss. It’s a vote of repudiation, and in a vote of repudiation, people seem to have little patience” with the resulting government, said Monica de Bolle of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
“My take is that what we will see is a period where a lot of questions are going to be asked and we’re going to see how politically able Fernandez is going to be to handle those questions,” she said.
Beyond showing his determination to bring about change, Fernandez has given scant details of how he intends to do so.
In primaries held in August, Fernandez garnered 49.5 percent of the vote compared with 33 percent for Macri, whose nearly four years in power have been marked by economic woes.
Macri blamed Argentina’s economic problems on previous Peronist governments under Kirchner and her late husband, former Argentine president Nestor Kirchner.
The center-right president, 60, has presented himself as a safe pair of hands and campaigned to be given the chance to follow through on his policies.
His supporters have warned of surprises pointing out there were no polls published since a massive rally in central Buenos Aires last weekend.
“Mauricio Macri was far from perfect, but he had all the good intentions and the last thing we want is to return to the past, 12 years of Kirchnerism did not help, we are a failed country,” said Tomas Villar, 23, a political science student.
Macri’s popularity has fallen off sharply over the past year in which Argentina has been in recession.
The poverty rate has risen to more than 35 percent, inflation for the year to last month was at almost 38 percent, while the peso has depreciated 70 percent since January last year.
That, and the austerity measures Macri subsequently was forced to announce, proved highly unpopular in a country where the spending power of many ordinary Argentines has dropped dramatically.
Under Argentine law a candidate can win the presidency in the first round if they reach 45 percent of the vote, and a 10 point margin over their nearest rival.
Otherwise a second round is to be held on Nov. 24.
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