Spain yesterday went to the polls for its most divisive and open-ended election in decades, set to result in a fragmented parliament in which the far-right would get a sizeable presence for the first time since the country’s return to democracy.
After a tense campaign dominated by issues such as national identity and gender equality, the likelihood that any coalition deal would take weeks or months to be brokered would feed into a broader mood of political uncertainty across Europe.
At least five parties from across the political spectrum had a chance of being in government and they could struggle to agree on a deal, meaning a repeat election is one of several possible outcomes.
However, a few things were clear, based on opinion polls and conversations with party insiders: No single party would get a majority; the Socialist party of outgoing Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez was leading the race; and there would be lawmakers from the far-right Vox party.
Beyond that, the result was too close to call.
Voting started at 9am and was to end at 8pm in mainland Spain for what would be the country’s third national election in four years, each of which has brought a further dislocation of the political landscape.
It was uncertain if Sanchez would manage to stay in office and how many allies he would need to gather together to do so.
If, in addition to far-left anti-austerity party Podemos and other small parties, Sanchez also needs the support of Catalan separatist lawmakers, talks would be long and their outcome unclear.
Opinion polls, which ended on Monday last week, have suggested that it would be harder for a right-wing split between three parties — the center-right Ciudadanos, conservative People’s Party and Vox — to clinch a majority, but the scenario was within polls’ margin of error and could not be ruled out.
With the trauma of military dictatorship under general Francisco Franco, who died in 1975, still fresh in the memory for its older generation, Spain had long been seen as resistant to the wave of nationalist, populist parties spreading across much of Europe.
However, this time Vox was likely to get seats, boosted by voter discontent with traditional parties, its focus on widespread anger at Catalonia’s independence drive and non-mainstream views that include opposing a law on gender violence it has said discriminates against men.
One of several unknowns was how big an entry Vox would make in the Spanish parliament’s lower house, with opinion polls having given a wide range of forecasts and struggled to pin down the party’s voter base.
The high number of undecided voters — in some surveys as many as four in 10 — has also complicated the task of predicting the outcome, as have the intricacies of a complex electoral system under which 52 constituencies elect 350 lawmakers.
That system is untested in Spain’s new political era, marked by the definitive end of the long-held dominance of the People’s Party and the Socialists.
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