Ahead of a dramatic vote at the UN on Thursday, the US made an unprecedented threat to fellow members of the international community: those who vote against US President Donald Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital risk diplomatic retaliation and losing US financial aid, but when the dust settled, the biggest recipients of US aid — most of them Muslim or Arab nations — rejected the threat, leaving the White House facing a tricky dilemma as it plots a course forward for the Middle East.
Key Arab allies, led by Saudi Arabia, all banded together against the US.
Yet for Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, there were some bright spots in the lopsided vote.
Some influential nations, mostly African and Latin American nations courted by Israel, stepped back from past support for the Palestinians by abstaining or skipping the vote altogether.
Still, two of Netanyahu’s biggest targets, China and India, came down solidly in favor of the Palestinians.
These mixed trends could allow each side to claim a victory of sorts.
AID RECIPIENTS
With the exception of Israel, the top recipients of international aid are Muslim, Arab or African nations.
Afghanistan, Egypt, Jordan and Pakistan all voted to back the resolution, as did African nations Tanzania, Nigeria, Ethiopia and South Africa.
In addition to Israel, the only member of the top 10 aid recipients not to support the Palestinians was Kenya, a close Israeli ally that skipped the vote, according to Foreignassistance.gov.
ARAB ALLIES
The Arab world voted across the board with the Palestinians, an expected move given the importance of Jerusalem and the Palestinian cause to the Arab public.
Nonetheless, the vote could embarrass the White House, which has sought to cultivate ties with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other moderate Sunni nations to counter rising Iranian influence.
It could also complicate attempts by the US to rally support for an expected regional peace plan it says is in the works.
CLAIMING VICTORY
The Palestinians praised the lopsided majority in their favor, saying it shows “once again that the just Palestinian cause enjoys the support of [the] international community.”
Yet the Palestinians have long enjoyed widespread support in the UN, which is dominated by developing nations sympathetic to their cause.
In a possible cause for concern, the level of support was slightly less than a 2012 landmark vote in the UN General Assembly to recognize Palestine as a non-member state. In that vote, 138 nations supported the Palestinians, compared to 125 on Thursday.
ISRAELI OUTREACH
Netanyahu has made significant outreach efforts to nations in Africa, Asia and Latin America in a bid to soften support for the Palestinians at the UN. Those efforts showed some signs of success.
After the vote, Netanyahu said he appreciated the growing number of nations that “refused to participate in this theater of the absurd.”
Mexico and Argentina, nations that Netanyahu visited earlier this year, both shifted from past support for the Palestinians to abstentions. Two Latin American nations, Guatemala and Honduras, even voted against the measure.
While Kenya skipped the vote, Uganda and South Sudan — African nations courted by Netanyahu — also dropped their past support for the Palestinians and abstained.
However, a possible concern for Israel could be the apparent support by two nations with poor human rights record — Myanmar, which skipped the vote, and the Philippines, which abstained.
Both nations voted with the Palestinians in 2012.
The Indian and Chinese votes also exposed the limits of Netanyahu’s outreach.
EUROPE
As the US prepares a new Middle East peace push, the vote exposed deep divisions within Europe.
The three most important nations in Europe — Britain, France and Germany — all voted against the US. That could signal trouble if the US seeks European support for its peace plan down the road.
Other European nations with close ties to Israel, including Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic — all with nationalist governments — abstained in the vote.
The divisions within Europe could complicate attempts by the EU to formulate a joint position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict moving forward.
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