Half a degree Celsius of global warming has been enough to increase heat waves and heavy rains in many regions of the planet, researchers reported yesterday.
Comparing two 20-year periods — 1960 to 1979 and 1991 to 2010 — between which average global temperatures jumped 0.5?C, scientists found that several kinds of extreme weather gained in duration and intensity.
The hottest summer temperatures increased by more than 1?C across a quarter of Earth’s land, while the coldest winter temperatures warmed by more then 2.5?C.
The intensity of extreme precipitation grew nearly 10 percent across a quarter of all land masses, and the duration of hot spells — which can fuel forest fires — lengthened by a week in half of land areas.
These changes were well outside the bounds of natural variability, according to the study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
“We have to rely on climate models to predict the future,” said lead author Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research. “But given that we now have observational evidence of around 1?C warming, we can also look at the real-life impacts this warming has brought.”
The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is to issue a report for policymakers in September next year on the feasibility of the Paris Agreement’s 1.5?C target, and what effects might be avoided if it is met.
The new study suggests even a half degree rise is significant.
“With the warming the world has already experienced, we can see very clearly that a difference of 0.5?C really does matter,” coauthor Erich Fischer said.
Earlier research based on computer models, also led by Schleussner, concluded that 2?C of warming would — compared to 1.5?C — double the severity of crop failures, water shortages and heatwaves in many regions.
It also found that holding the rise to 1.5?C would give coral reefs a fighting chance of adapting to warmer and more acidic seas.
However, an extra half degree would expose most reefs to possible extinction by century’s end.
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