China’s leaders are biting their tongues as US president-elect Donald Trump uses Twitter to rattle relations between the world’s biggest economies.
Trump lashed out at China over the weekend, saying it stole an underwater drone from the US Navy in an “unprecedented act.” Beijing’s response was muted, with Xinhua news agency publishing nothing on the topic on Sunday while the Chinese Communist Party-affiliated Global Times mocked Trump’s demeanor as “lagging far behind the White House spokespersons.”
“China has so far practiced restraint at Trump’s provocations as he’s yet to enter the White House,” the op-ed said. “But this attitude won’t last too long after he officially becomes the US president, were he still to treat China in the manner he tweeted today.”
For all the noise from Trump’s Twitter account and elements of the Chinese media, Beijing appears to be holding its fire at least until after he takes office next month. Until then, it looks set to continue the stance of “strategic composure” articulated after Trump questioned the US’ policy of diplomatically recognizing Beijing instead of Taiwan.
Beijing will “strike back firmly” if Trump as president openly challenges China’s core interests like Taiwan, Tibet, the South China Sea and the East China Sea, said Shi Yinhong (時殷弘), director of the Center on American Studies at Renmin University in Beijing and an adviser to China’s State Council.
Options include recalling the nation’s ambassador to the US, stopping international cooperation, fighting a trade war — even severing diplomatic ties.
“So far, China has adopted a cautious, measured approach of wait and see,” Shi said.
The fallout from worsening ties threatens a two-way trade relationship that reached US$627 billion last year, more than US’ combined commerce with Japan, the UK and Germany. While some policymakers in Beijing initially hoped that Trump would bring a more pragmatic approach, that view is quickly fading.
In an op-ed published last week after Trump questioned the “one China” policy, the Global Times warned: “We shall harbor no illusions, and get ready to wrist-fight with Trump.”
Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi (王毅), without mentioning Trump’s name, said that whoever tries to destroy China’s core interests would shoot themselves in the foot.
Trump deleted his first tweet after writing “unpresidented” rather than “unprecedented.” Later, after tensions appeared to have been diffused, Trump sent another tweet: “We should tell China that we don’t want the drone they stole back.- let them keep it!”
Such a response would deprive the US of the ability to assess what information China sought to obtain while analyzing the drone after it was seized, said Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra.
“It just shows that Trump hasn’t thought out his policy before he tweets it,” Davis said. “The risk is that he is going to confront China to the point where it is destabilizing.”
The Pentagon said a Chinese vessel unlawfully seized the small unmanned vehicle on Thursday while the USNS Bowditch was collecting it in a routine operation 50 nautical miles (92.6km) northwest of Subic Bay in the Philippines. China said it picked up the drone for safety reasons, while blaming the US’ surveillance activities for hurting ties.
“Under Trump, China-US conflicts in the South China Sea are likely to ratchet up or even deepen, with unpredictable incidents like the Bowditch episode to occur from time to time,” said Li Jie (李傑), a senior researcher at the Chinese Naval Research Institute in Beijing.
The overseas edition of the People’s Daily, the Chinese Communist Party’s flagship newspaper, said on its social media WeChat account on Saturday night that China’s capture of the drone was legal because it was conducting “military operations in sensitive waters” and rules about drone activities are ambiguous.
“This is a gray area,” the article said. “If the US military can send the drone over, China can certainly seize it.”
While the motive for the seizure remains unclear, it is a concern no matter whether it was ordered from Beijing or the act of a rogue captain, said Michael Mazza, research fellow in foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute.
“To me all of these various explanations are troubling,” he said. “If we do learn it was one ship acting on its own that’s not cause for a sigh of relief.”
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