Almost a week past the deadline set by US Secretary of State John Kerry for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to begin a political transition in Syria, fighting is raging in Aleppo, the last urban stronghold of the rebels opposed to the regime, but the US is not coming to their rescue, because the wrong kind of rebels are involved in the battle.
In terms of helping to end the war, the US inaction might be worse than the scenario touted by Republican US presidential candidate Donald Trump — an alliance with Russia to defeat the Islamic State — but it is more politically acceptable.
The group formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra attempted to rebrand itself as Fatah al-Sham at the end of last month, ostensibly distancing itself from al-Qaeda. It now appears to be the driving force behind a rebel attempt to break the Syrian army’s siege.
Photo: Reuters
The desperate attack — supplies have been running out in eastern Aleppo — appears to have fizzled: With Russian air support, the regime forces and their Iranian and Lebanese allies are pushing back and holding the siege, which cuts the rebels off from Turkey.
However, since its failed coup, Turkey appears to be more aligned with Russia than with the rebels. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stepped up his anti-US rhetoric, accusing Washington of complicity in the coup attempt.
For its part, the US has not bought the al-Nusra rebranding and still considers it a terrorist group. That means it cannot defend it. In May, Kerry demanded that a political transition from al-Assad’s regime start by Monday.
“Either something happens in these next few months, or they are asking for a very different track,” Kerry said.
Yet the “track” appears to be exactly the same as before: Kerry has only suggested that Russia “restrain both itself and the al-Assad regime from conducting offensive operations, just as it is our responsibility to get the opposition to refrain from engaging in those operations” — advice that both sides are ignoring. In the absence of support, the so-called moderate opposition is coming to rely increasingly on the militants for help.
That is a nasty situation for the US, as Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Foundation pointed out.
“The United States doesn’t have major allies on the ground, except the Kurds, with real military potential, and yet, we are still hoping to simultaneously defeat ISIS [Islamic State], defeat the Nusra Front, and replace [al-]Assad. That approach just doesn’t make sense,” O’Hanlon said.
However, the US does not have a reverse gear: Kerry cannot tell Russian President Vladimir Putin that the administration of US President Barack Obama no longer wants to get rid of al-Assad. Putin is in a similar predicament in eastern Ukraine: Although propping up the secessionist “people’s republics” there is a costly, futile exercise, he cannot abandon them without appearing to cave in to Western demands.
In Syria, Putin is holding a much stronger hand. Unlike the US, he is backing a capable force that — with Russian and Iranian support — could take on the insurgents. The opposition has probably missed its best chance to negotiate a political transition now: Since the US is standing back and so is Turkey, al-Assad, Putin, Hezbollah and Iranian forces are going to pummel them.
Putin has maintained from the start that the Syrian conflict is binary — a war between the legitimate government and an assortment of terrorist groups. Now he is about to bend reality to this inaccurate description: If the al-Assad forces take Aleppo, the war will be essentially binary — between the al-Assad coalition and the Islamic State. For Putin, this is preferable to a negotiated solution: The defeat of the opposition groups in Aleppo would make the US reluctance to leave al-Assad in power irrelevant. There would be no alternative.
At the same time, there is not much incentive for the US to embark on a “different track.” No one would gain from increased US support for the hard-pressed opposition — neither the US itself, nor even its European allies, in constant danger of new waves of refugees: An intensification of fighting would force more people to flee. In addition, US backing for the Kurdish militias is further straining relations with Turkey.
The US appears to be allowing al-Assad, Putin and Iranian generals to implement their plan. If they succeed in taking Aleppo, they would face the Islamic State group without US support. They probably would be able to defeat the terror group if they are not forced to fight on several fronts.
It would take far less time if the US gave up on alternatives to al-Assad and joined the coalition. Since that is politically impossible barring a Trump victory in the presidential election, the war will go on and claim more lives — but it is difficult to see the Islamic State group withstanding a concentrated Russian-Iranian assault in the long term.
If the US allows this scenario to unfold, its credibility as an international arbiter would inevitably suffer. Eventually, it might have to watch from the sidelines as al-Assad and Erdogan gang up on the Kurdish militias that have received open US backing. It might be forced to look on passively as a victorious al-Assad unleashes reprisals. It would definitely face a gloating, empowered Putin.
Yet inaction might well be the less costly option — at least no public reversals would be necessary and someone else would shoulder the burden of fighting.
The US can only hope that regime forces will somehow be defeated at Aleppo. That, judging by events on the ground, is a thin thread to hang on to.
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