Two or three frontrunners for the position of UN Secretary-General have emerged after 18 hours of unprecedented UN General Assembly town hall meetings with nine candidates, though the race is set to widen with more nominations expected, several diplomats said.
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon steps down at the end of the year after two five-year terms, and some commentators predict that up to 15 candidates could be vying for the job by the time the UN Security Council hold’s its first informal straw poll in July.
Former Portuguese prime minister Antonio Guterres and former New Zealand prime minister Helen Clark were deemed by some diplomats, speaking privately, to be leading the pack after each nominee was quizzed for two hours by the General Assembly.
The third candidate to watch was not so clear. Diplomats cited performances by UN cultural group UNESCO Director-General Irina Bokova of Bulgaria, former Serbian minister of foreign affairs Vuk Jeremic and former Slovenian president Danilo Turk.
“It is too early to rule anybody in or out, but I think there are at least two or three good candidates already amongst the ones we have seen,” Saudi Ambassador to the UN Abdallah al-Mouallimi said.
Ukraine Ambassador to the UN Volodymyr Yelchenko, an elected member of the 15-member Security Council, had a similar assessment: “I would say that approximately three out of nine I would call frontrunners.”
For 70 years, the Security Council has met behind closed doors to choose the world body’s eight male secretary-generals, who were then rubber-stamped by the 193-member General Assembly. The ninth UN secretary-general is to be chosen the same way, although, for the first time, candidates have been publicly nominated.
Ultimately the Security Council’s veto powers — the US, Britain, France, Russia and China — have to agree on a candidate, but there is no requirement for them to pay attention to the popularity of nominees with the General Assembly.
However, they could turn to betting odds. British bookmaker William Hill has Clark as the favorite, followed by Jeremic, Bokova, Guterres and Turk. Former Macedonian minister of foreign affairs Srgjan Kerim comes next, followed by Moldova’s former minister of foreign affairs Natalia Gherman; former Croatian minister of foreign affairs Vesna Pusic and Montenegro Minister of Foreign Affairs Igor Luksic.
Four of the nine candidates are women amid a push by 56 UN states and civil society groups for the first female secretary-general to be chosen.
Argentine Minister of Foreign Affairs Susana Malcorra, who has served as Ban’s Chef de Cabinet, is also expected to be nominated. Others said to be eying the job include Colombian Minister of Foreign Affairs Maria Angela Holguin, former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd and Slovakian Minister of Foreign Affairs Miroslav Lajcak.
“We urge now every country and every candidate ... to come forward and come forward quickly,” said UN General Assembly President Mogens Lykketoft of Denmark.
Under an informal tradition of rotating the top post between regions, it is Eastern Europe’s turn and six of the current nominees are from there.
Moscow backs the regional rotation, but when asked if Russia would veto a non-Eastern European candidate, Russian Ambassador to the UN Vitaly Churkin said: “No, we are not going to... There are respected, qualified people, so we have to be objective.”
A senior council diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that if Russia wanted to choose an Eastern European to be the next UN secretary-general then “they need to make sure there is a better candidate or a choice of better candidates.”
“In terms of expectations, I think Bokova was disappointing,” the diplomat added.
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