From listening posts to jet fighter deployments and now surface-to-air missiles, China’s expanding facilities in the Paracel Islands (Xisha Islands, 西沙群島) are a signal of long-term plans to strengthen its military reach across the disputed South China Sea.
Diplomats and security experts in contact with Chinese military strategists said Beijing’s moves to arm and expand its long-established holdings in the Paracels would likely be replicated on its artificial islands in the more contentious Spratly Islands (Nansha Islands, 南沙群島), about 500km further south.
Eventually, both disputed island groups are expected be used for jet fighter operations and constant surveillance, while also housing significant civilian populations in a bid to buttress China’s sovereign claims.
Crucially, that would give Beijing the reach to try to enforce any effective air defense zone in the South China Sea, similar to the zone it created over the East China Sea in late 2013.
US officials confirmed on Thursday the “very recent” placement of surface-to-air missiles on Woody Island (Yongxing Island, 永興島), the site of the largest Chinese presence on the Paracels, criticizing the move as contrary to Beijing’s commitments not to militarize its claims in the South China Sea.
Beijing said it is entitled to “limited defensive facilities” on its territory and dismissed reports about the missile placement as media “hype.”
Ian Storey, a South China Sea expert at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said he believed similar weapons could be deployed to China’s holdings in the Spratlys within a year or two.
“This would enable China to back up its warnings with real capabilities,” he said.
Bonnie Glaser, a senior advisor at the Center for Security and International Studies in Washington, said the Paracels build-up was a likely precursor to similar military deployments on China’s recent reclamations in the Spratlys.
The HQ-9 missile batteries, guided by radar tracking systems, have a range of 200km and are the most significant defensive weapon China has yet placed on the Paracels, regional military attaches said.
The move could complicate surveillance patrols carried out routinely by US and Japanese aircraft as well as flights by US B-52 long-range bombers.
China landed fully armed jet fighters on an expanded airstrip on Woody Island in November last year and reinforced hangars have been completed, regional diplomats said.
Coast guard and fishing facilities have also been expanded, along with fuel storage tanks and housing for more than 1,000 civilians in what was declared “Sansha City” in 2012, Chinese analysts say.
Radar coverage and other electronic surveillance equipment has also been improved, and analysts expect the Paracels to play a key part in protecting China’s nuclear armed submarine fleet on Hainan Island, 200km to the north.
Speaking privately, Vietnamese officials said it is now far more difficult for their fishing fleets and coast guard to get close to the Paracels as they try to assert their own sovereign claims.
A similar build-up in the Spratlys would give China its first permanent military presence deep in the maritime heart of Southeast Asia, military attaches said.
Chinese officials have repeatedly stressed the civilian nature of the Spratlys expansion, including lighthouses, search and rescue bases and environment research stations.
Three runways have recently been completed and China last month announced the first successful test landings of civilian airliners on the new 3,000m airstrip at Fiery Cross Reef (Yongshu Reef, 永暑島).
Chinese analysts said the first military flights from the Spratlys could start within months.
Wu Shicun (吳士存), the head of China’s National Institute for South China Sea Studies, said lessons learned from the Paracels expansion could be transferred to the Spratlys, particularly to manage water supplies and waste.
“There is no real dispute in the Paracels ... so the development on the Paracels has been much faster and governance has also been more complete,” he said.
Xie Yanmei (謝豔梅), a Beijing-based security analyst with the International Crisis Group think tank, said China would seek to exploit dual-use facilities, such as radars and runways, on the Spratlys, but would be cautious about openly deploying military assets.
“The Spratly Islands are more complicated, because they involve every claimant,” she said. “It can be more costly to China diplomatically and geopolitically.”
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