A new opinion poll on Greece’s bailout referendum pointed to a closely balanced result in the vote that could decide the nation’s future in Europe.
The poll, conducted by the ALCO polling institute and published in the Ethnos newspaper yesterday, reflected a sharp swing from a previous opinion poll that showed the “No” vote backed by the left-wing government strongly ahead.
The new poll gave a slight lead for the “Yes” vote in favor of the bailout at 44.8 percent against 43.4 percent for the “No” vote. 11.8 percent were undecided.
Previously, the only full survey to be released since the referendum was announced showed the “No” vote ahead, but falling sharply after the announcement that banks would be shut.
The latest poll was published a day after the IMF delivered a stark warning of the huge financial hole facing Greece.
The IMF, part of the lenders’ “troika” behind successive international bailouts, said Greece needed an extra 50 billion euros (US$55.58 billion) over the next three years, including 36 billion from its European partners, to stay afloat. It also needed significant debt relief.
The assessment, in a preliminary draft of the IMF’s latest debt sustainability report, underlines the scale of the problems facing Athens, whatever the result of tomorrow’s referendum on the bailout offered by creditors last month.
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ rejection of what he terms the “blackmail” of EU and IMF creditors demanding spending cuts and tax increases has so angered Greece’s partners that there is no hope of reconciliation before tomorrow.
With banks closed for a fourth day on Thursday and capital controls in place, the future of the left-wing government hangs on the result, given the angry mood of voters in Greece, torn between resentment of the lenders and scorn for their own politicians.
Tomorrow, it will fall to the Greek people to decide an issue that their government was unable to settle in months of acrimonious negotiations with its EU partners.
“We are asking them to vote with their eyes open and think hard about all the consequences of a ‘No’ vote, which could lead Greece to leave the eurozone,” French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said on the sidelines of an economic summit in Lyon.
The comment reflected the fear of many in the eurozone that a Greek exit would change the nature of a 15-year-old currency union intended to be unbreakable.
For Tsipras, if voters back a bailout plan that he has scorned, his government is likely to fall.
Already, his coalition is crumbling as a succession of deputies from the right-wing Independent Greeks, his junior partners, have backed the “Yes” vote.
Tsipras and Greek Minister of Finance Yanis Varoufakis remain convinced Athens can negotiate better terms, including debt relief, if voters reject the conditions on offer, but both have signaled they would quit if voters choose the bailout.
“I want to believe that these problems won’t last long,” Tsipras said of the bank closures.
“The banks will open when there is a deal,” he said in a television interview, predicting it would come within 48 hours of the referendum.
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