Now it is personal. By upping the ante with his threat to isolate Russia with sanctions over Crimea, US President Barack Obama risks setting off a cycle of confrontation with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Despite his reluctance to play Cold War-style chess with Putin, a degeneration into a new great power rivalry cannot be ruled out.
Since Russia’s move into Ukraine, Obama has steadily upped pressure, while offering Putin a diplomatic “off ramp” to defuse the crisis.
Indefatigable US Secretary of State John Kerry has spent hours bartering ideas with Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov in Europe.
However, the belief in Washington is that only Putin has the power to dictate outcomes — introducing a personal dimension into the crisis.
That recognition underpinned two bluntly spoken calls between Obama and Putin last week.
The US plan would see international observers monitor the welfare of ethnic Russians in Ukraine, Moscow’s troops withdraw to Crimean bases and Ukrainian elections in May.
However, the Russian troop buildup in Crimea and a pending referendum among peninsula’s mainly Russian-speaking citizens on joining Russia seems to be outpacing US diplomacy.
The question now is whether the worst East-West crisis since the Cold War will chill the entire relationship between the world’s top two nuclear powers?
For instance, can Washington insulate high priority areas of cooperation — like Iran nuclear talks and its transit route out of Afghanistan — from the dispute
Or will the dynamics of the crisis and the pressure on both Obama and Putin to appear strong create their own destructive dynamic?
Lee Feinstein, a former US ambassador to Poland and a campaign adviser to Obama, said options were already narrowing.
“It depends on the trajectory that Putin takes,” said Feinstein, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund.
Obama last week appeared on camera to personally highlight visa bans on some Russian officials and a structure for sanctions on some entities and individuals.
If Crimea is taken from Ukraine and taken by Russia, Obama would have little choice, along with European partners, to make good on his threats, risking Russian retaliation.
A new great power rivalry is not Obama’s choice, he came to office determined to “reset” relations with Russia.
Although the policy yielded a new nuclear arms reduction deal, helped him win a Nobel prize and was instrumental in clamping tight sanctions on Iran — it ran out of steam before he won reelection.
By keeping diplomatic options open through Kerry and by coaxing Putin, Obama hopes to forestall a prolonged confrontation.
Michael McFaul, Obama’s just departed ambassador to Moscow, believes Russia’s cooperation on Iran nuclear talks, for example, can endure “not because Putin is doing us any favors, but because he sees [it] in Russia’s national interest.”
In that sense, the idea behind the reset — that while Russia and the US are not friends they can cooperate where it makes sense — could survive.
However, with Putin often seeming to define his bid to restore Russia’s pride and influence by thwarting US foreign policy — in Syria for instance — the spirit of the reset is long dead.
Soil was piled on its grave with Russia’s offer of asylum to fugitive US whistle-blower Edward Snowden.
And Obama penned its obituary by snubbing Putin last year by judging their agenda too threadbare to justify a planned Moscow summit.
Meanwhile, the revival of long dormant tensions has electrified old cold warriors in Washington.
Obama has long dispensed with illusions about Putin.
He sees Putin’s worldview as framed by his apprenticeship in the KGB and nationalistic nostalgia for the Soviet Union.
He is also irritated by the perception that Putin “rescued” him after he blinked at striking Syria over its chemical weapons use.
Obama argues the now troubled deal to destroy the Syrian regime’s chemical arsenal was his idea nurtured by painstaking diplomacy, not an opportunist pounce by Putin.
CONFRONTATION: The water cannon attack was the second this month on the Philippine supply boat ‘Unaizah May 4,’ after an incident on March 5 The China Coast Guard yesterday morning blocked a Philippine supply vessel and damaged it with water cannons near a reef off the Southeast Asian country, the Philippines said. The Philippine military released video of what it said was a nearly hour-long attack off the Second Thomas Shoal (Renai Shoal, 仁愛暗沙) in the contested South China Sea, where Chinese ships have unleashed water cannons and collided with Philippine vessels in similar standoffs in the past few months. The China Coast Guard and other vessels “once again harassed, blocked, deployed water cannons, and executed dangerous maneuvers” against a routine rotation and resupply mission to
GLOBAL COMBAT AIR PROGRAM: The potential purchasers would be limited to the 15 nations with which Tokyo has signed defense partnership and equipment transfer deals Japan’s Cabinet yesterday approved a plan to sell future next-generation fighter jets that it is developing with the UK and Italy to other nations, in the latest move away from the country’s post-World War II pacifist principles. The contentious decision to allow international arms sales is expected to help secure Japan’s role in the joint fighter jet project, and is part of a move to build up the Japanese arms industry and bolster its role in global security. The Cabinet also endorsed a revision to Japan’s arms equipment and technology transfer guidelines to allow coproduced lethal weapons to be sold to nations
‘POLITICAL EARTHQUAKE’: Leo Varadkar said he was ‘no longer the best person’ to lead the nation and was stepping down for political, as well as personal, reasons Leo Varadkar on Wednesday announced that he was stepping down as Ireland’s prime minister and leader of the Fine Gael party in the governing coalition, citing “personal and political” reasons. Pundits called the surprise move, just 10 weeks before Ireland holds European Parliament and local elections, a “political earthquake.” A general election has to be held within a year. Irish Deputy Prime Minister Micheal Martin, leader of Fianna Fail, the main coalition partner, said Varadkar’s announcement was “unexpected,” but added that he expected the government to run its full term. An emotional Varadkar, who is in his second stint as prime minister and at
Thousands of devotees, some in a state of trance, gathered at a Buddhist temple on the outskirts of Bangkok renowned for sacred tattoos known as Sak Yant, paying their respects to a revered monk who mastered the practice and seeking purification. The gathering at Wat Bang Phra Buddhist temple is part of a Thai Wai Khru ritual in which devotees pay homage to Luang Phor Pern, the temple’s formal abbot, who died in 2002. He had a reputation for refining and popularizing the temple’s Sak Yant tattoo style. The idea that tattoos confer magical powers has existed in many parts of Asia