Do not expect a new Chinese baby boom, experts say, despite the first easing of the country’s strict one-child policy in three decades.
Between 15 million and 20 million Chinese parents will be allowed to have a second child after the government announced on Friday that couples can have two children if one partner has no siblings.
However, the easing of the policy is so incremental that demographers and policymakers are not anticipating an influx of newborn babies at a time when young Chinese couples are already opting for smaller families, driving the country’s fertility rate down to 1.5 to 1.6 births per woman.
“A baby boom can be safely ruled out,” said Wang Feng (王豐), professor of sociology at the University of California, Irvine.
Wang said that although Chinese couples where both parents have no siblings have for some time been allowed to have a second child, many have elected to have only one.
“Young people’s reproductive desires have changed,” he said.
Xia Gaolong and his wife are among those who will be allowed to have a second child as a result of the new policy, but he said he has no intention of giving his 10-year-old son a sibling.
Xia, who runs a tour bus business in the thriving city of Nanjing, said the high cost of living and fierce competition for schools and jobs would deter him from bringing another child into the world.
“No way will I have another child,” said Xia, who is in his late 30s. “There are so many pressures in life in today’s society, and our children will face only more pressures.”
Experts estimate that the new rules allowing couples where one partner is an only child to have a second baby will result in 1 million to 2 million extra births per year in the first few years, on top of the 16 million babies born annually in China.
Cai Yong (蔡泳), an assistant professor of sociology at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, said the figure could be even lower because of the growing acceptance of small families.
In an unscientific survey on the Chinese-language micro-blogging site Sina Weibo, more than 60 percent of those who self-identified as being eligible for the new exemption from the one-child limit said they would have a second child.
“A second child is absolutely necessary, and we thank the new policy,” said May Zha, 34, of Beijing, the mother of a three-year-old.
Zha said that her husband is an only child, making the couple eligible for the new exemption, and that they plan to have another baby as soon as possible.
“Time does not wait,” she said.
Still, experts say an abundance of newborn babies is unlikely because couples will have different time plans for the second child, and not all intentions will become reality.
The central government apparently does not want to see a spike in births, even regionally.
Wang Peian (王培安), a deputy director of the National Health and Family Planning Commission, said China is opting for the incremental step because a universal two-child policy would result in a major fluctuation in population, putting pressure on basic public services. However, some demographers have argued that even a reversal of the one-child policy would not result in a spike in births because of fundamental changes in the public’s reproductive behaviors.
Faced with a growing population, China’s government began to implement birth planning policies in the 1970s and placed a de facto one-child limit in 1980. It eased restrictions four years later to allow many families to have two children — including couples who do not have any siblings and rural couples whose firstborn is a girl.