The number of people fleeing their homes and becoming refugees or displaced in their own countries will increase in the next 10 years as a result of a host of intertwined causes, ranging from conflict and climate change to population growth and food shortages, according to a report on Thursday by the UN refugee agency.
The State of the World’s Refugees, covering the period 2006 to last year, said a key change and dominant challenge is the increasing number of internally displaced people — about 26 million globally, compared with about 15 million to 16 million refugees who have crossed borders to another country, and a further 1 million asylum seekers.
It said helping the internally displaced is becoming more costly and dangerous, citing Somalia, Afghanistan, Yemen and Iraq, where access is difficult and conflict or criminality can present deadly risk.
“Global forced displacement reached a 16-year high in 2011 and has become more complex than ever before,” UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon wrote in a preface to the report.
“Today, conflict and human rights abuses — the traditional drivers of displacement — are increasingly intertwined with and compounded by other factors such as population pressure, food insecurity and water scarcity,” he said.
Ban said many of these factors are related “to the relentless advance of climate change.” In addition, he said, “growing numbers of people are being uprooted by natural disasters.”
The 266-page report said experts predict that natural disasters, which are already displacing millions of people, will increase in number and intensity. It said climate change is likely to increase conflict over scarce resources, which could lead to an increase in internal displacement and refugees.
“Global trends suggest that displacement will not only continue in the future, but will take different forms,” the report said, citing predictions that the global population will increase from 7 billion today to more than 10 billion by 2100, with most of the increase in Africa and Asia, where increased poverty is likely to squeeze resources and send young people from rural areas to cities.
At a news conference launching the report, UN High Commissioner for Refugees Antonio Guterres said: “A multiplication of new crises ... led to the fact that last year, we had the highest number of new refugees in the last decade.”
He said he expects this trend to continue, because “the number of crises emerging in 2012 is exactly the same as last year.”
At the moment, Guterres said, there are three acute crises — Syria, Sudan-South Sudan and Mali — as well as the recent flight of Congolese to neighboring Rwanda and Uganda.
Guterres said 70 percent of refugees his agency deals with have been refugees for more than five years “and it’s becoming more and more difficult to find solutions for them.”
It is also becoming more difficult to reach out to them and support them, he said.
Eighty percent of refugees live in the developing world — including 1.7 million Afghans in Pakistan, 1 million Afghans in Iran and more than 600,000 refugees in Kenya — and he urged donors and industrialized nations to step up support and offers of resettlement.
Although the UN is legally required to help refugees fleeing conflict or persecution, it has no mandate to assist people displaced in their own country, known as IDPs.