Mitt Romney is the clear Republican front-runner in Iowa in the final days before the first voting in the build-up to this year’s presidential election, but polls also suggest large numbers of Republicans could change their minds before tomorrow’s caucuses.
Five other candidates are fighting, as they have all last year, to emerge as the conservative alternative to Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, in the state-by-state nominating contests to pick a challenger to Democratic US President Barack Obama in November’s election.
Polls show Obama is vulnerable as he seeks a second term, weighed down with voter dissatisfaction over his handling of the economy and the stagnant recovery from a recession.
Only three or four candidates typically make it out of Iowa with enough momentum and money to continue in the race.
The ascendant Rick Santorum, a former US senator, and Texas Governor Rick Perry are battling to win over social conservatives. Libertarian-leaning US Representative Ron Paul is working to preserve support that is starting to slip. Former House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich is struggling to end his sharp slide. US Representative Michele Bachmann is hardly a factor.
“It may be Romney’s to lose at this point,” said John Stineman, an Iowa Republican campaign strategist who has been monitoring internal and public polls. “And it’s a battle among the rest.”
Although much can happen before tomorrow’s caucuses, public surveys and internal polls, as well as interviews with Republican activists, Iowa voters and political operatives both inside and outside the candidates’ campaigns suggest that Romney is in strong contention to win in Iowa.
A new poll by the Des Moines Register, which has endorsed Romney, late on Saturday showed Romney and Paul statistically even at the front of the pack. Romney had 24 percent and Paul had 22 percent. Santorum was third with 15 percent of likely voters backing him.
Gingrich had 12 percent support and Perry had 11 percent. Bachmann trailed with 7 percent.
Paul, who surged this month, has faded some following attacks on his foreign policy positions as being outside the Republican mainstream. Paul opposes intervening militarily to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, advocates withdrawing US troops from Afghanistan and wants to end US aid to Israel and other allies.
Santorum and Perry are climbing, but evangelical Republicans and cultural conservatives continue to divide their support among the field — giving Romney an opening. And a large contingent of voters has not yet locked in on a candidate as the clock winds down.
Despite rapidly shifting dynamics, two things were clear on the final weekend before the caucuses: The year-long effort to establish a consensus conservative challenger to Romney had failed and Romney’s carefully laid plan to survive Iowa was succeeding. It relies on conservative voters failing to rally behind one candidate.
CONFRONTATION: The water cannon attack was the second this month on the Philippine supply boat ‘Unaizah May 4,’ after an incident on March 5 The China Coast Guard yesterday morning blocked a Philippine supply vessel and damaged it with water cannons near a reef off the Southeast Asian country, the Philippines said. The Philippine military released video of what it said was a nearly hour-long attack off the Second Thomas Shoal (Renai Shoal, 仁愛暗沙) in the contested South China Sea, where Chinese ships have unleashed water cannons and collided with Philippine vessels in similar standoffs in the past few months. The China Coast Guard and other vessels “once again harassed, blocked, deployed water cannons, and executed dangerous maneuvers” against a routine rotation and resupply mission to
GLOBAL COMBAT AIR PROGRAM: The potential purchasers would be limited to the 15 nations with which Tokyo has signed defense partnership and equipment transfer deals Japan’s Cabinet yesterday approved a plan to sell future next-generation fighter jets that it is developing with the UK and Italy to other nations, in the latest move away from the country’s post-World War II pacifist principles. The contentious decision to allow international arms sales is expected to help secure Japan’s role in the joint fighter jet project, and is part of a move to build up the Japanese arms industry and bolster its role in global security. The Cabinet also endorsed a revision to Japan’s arms equipment and technology transfer guidelines to allow coproduced lethal weapons to be sold to nations
Thousands of devotees, some in a state of trance, gathered at a Buddhist temple on the outskirts of Bangkok renowned for sacred tattoos known as Sak Yant, paying their respects to a revered monk who mastered the practice and seeking purification. The gathering at Wat Bang Phra Buddhist temple is part of a Thai Wai Khru ritual in which devotees pay homage to Luang Phor Pern, the temple’s formal abbot, who died in 2002. He had a reputation for refining and popularizing the temple’s Sak Yant tattoo style. The idea that tattoos confer magical powers has existed in many parts of Asia
ON ALERT: A Russian cruise missile crossed into Polish airspace for about 40 seconds, the Polish military said, adding that it is constantly monitoring the war to protect its airspace Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, and the western region of Lviv early yesterday came under a “massive” Russian air attack, officials said, while a Russian cruise missile breached Polish airspace, the Polish military said. Russia and Ukraine have been engaged in a series of deadly aerial attacks, with yesterday’s strikes coming a day after the Russian military said it had seized the Ukrainian village of Ivanivske, west of Bakhmut. A militant attack on a Moscow concert hall on Friday that killed at least 133 people also became a new flash point between the two archrivals. “Explosions in the capital. Air defense is working. Do not