China needs to reduce food production on its dry northern plains or aquifers will diminish to a “dire” level in 30 years, one of the country’s leading groundwater experts has warned.
Zheng Chunmiao (鄭春苗), director of the water research center at Peking University, said the world’s most populous country would have to focus on restraining demand because it has become more expensive and difficult to tap finite supplies below the surface.
“The government must adopt a new policy to reduce water consumption,” Zheng said. “The main thing is to reduce demand. We have relied too much on engineering projects, but ... this is not a long-term solution.”
His comments are based on studies of the aquifers under the north China plain, one of the country’s main wheat growing regions. He said the water table has been falling at about 1m a year, mainly because of agriculture, which accounts for about 60 percent of demand.
“The water situation in the North China plain does not allow much longer for irrigation,” Zheng said. “We need to reduce food production, even though it is politically difficult. It would be much more economical to import.”
The government will be reluctant to accept such a radical step, which could weaken the country’s ability to feed itself, but it may not have a choice.
Over the past 10 years, Zheng estimates the annual water deficit in northern China at 4 billion cubic meters. This is increasingly made up from underground sources, which account for some 70 percent of water supplies.
Although some aquifers remain 500m thick, others are emptying at an alarming rate. This has created depletion cones, the deepest of which is at Hengshui, near Xizhuajiang in Hebei Province.
Before trimming agricultural production, the government will try to improve usage efficiency. Plans are being made to measure and centrally manage the remaining resources, which are under the control of regional governments that tend to draw up water unsustainably for the short-term benefit of the local economy.
The Yellow River Conservancy Commission, which has the nation’s most advanced river management network, is expected to serve as a model.
“The government is considering a system similar to ours that will collect data on underground water resources and connect it to our Yellow River monitoring system,” said Pei Yong, director of the water regulation division. “I think it will start three or four years from now.”
Even before this begins, controls on underground water use are being tightened. Well digging — once a lucrative, ubiquitous and poorly regulated business — is already feeling the pinch.
Kaifeng Well Drilling, a company in Henan, has laid off workers because it gets permission for only two wells a year, compared with about 30 in the 1980s.
“Business is very bad,” said the director, who gave only his surname, Wang. “The controls are very tight now.”
The situation remains critical. Zheng said much more is needed to be done to rectify the situation, including demand reduction, water transfers and greater use of desalination plants.
“If nothing at all changes, then in about 30 years, we will face a very dire situation,” he said.
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