While Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has been recovering from pelvic surgery in Cuba, his troubles at home have been accumulating.
On top of 23 percent inflation and growing government debt, worsening blackouts have emerged as a serious dilemma, forcing Chavez’s government to announce rationing measures including rolling power outages in some parts of the country.
Chavez is increasingly focused on shoring up support ahead of his re-election bid next year and some analysts say his domestic woes seem to be limiting his international reach in Latin America.
“President Chavez is going through a very difficult time,” said Maria Teresa Romero, a professor of international studies at the Central University of Venezuela. “He’s not the same Hugo Chavez he was four, five years ago.”
Chavez no longer has the financial ability to promote oil-funded diplomacy the way he did several years ago she said, and is -increasingly consumed with confronting issues such as the blackouts, deadly prison riots and deficiencies in the health care system.
“If he can’t handle such serious problems that are slipping out of his hands such as electricity ... how can it be explained that he’s going to help other countries?” Romero said.
Elsewhere in Latin America, “they see he’s weak,” she added.
The leftist leader has long reinforced his alliances by selling oil on credit and offering investments to build refineries in countries such as Ecuador and Brazil. The refinery projects, however, have been delayed for years and other Chavez ideas such as a natural gas pipeline across South America have yet to get off the ground.
During more than 12 years in office, Chavez has been joined by increasing numbers of left-leaning leaders in Latin America, and has enjoyed close ties with Bolivian President Evo Morales and Argentine President Cristina Fernandez.
Yet Chavez has also increasingly faced unfavorable public opinion in countries such as Peru, where -president-elect Ollanta Humala, once an open admirer, has since distanced himself and indicated he favors the moderate, business-friendly policies of former Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
A poll in 18 countries last year by Latinobarometro, an independent Chile-based organization, found that on average people gave Chavez a score of 3.9 on a scale of one to 10 — the second-worst score on the list after his ally and mentor, former Cuban president Fidel Castro.
Chavez scored five on the same annual survey in 2005, and has declined steadily since, said Carlos Macuada, a Latinobarometro researcher in Chile.
“As the years have passed, his image has been viewed more negatively by people in Latin America,” Macuada said.
The poll in September and October last year surveyed more than 20,000 people and had a margin of error of about plus or minus 3 percent, he said. Public opinion toward Chavez varied widely by country, with 69 percent in the Dominican Republic and 55 percent of Venezuelans saying they view him favorably. In Colombia and Mexico only 14 percent expressed a favorable view of Chavez, and in Peru, 18 percent.
Chavez’s approval ratings at home have slipped over the past few years as the country weathered a recession, and have been hovering in the 50 percent range. Polls suggest he remains the country’s single most popular politician, and in recent months the economy has returned to positive growth. However, other problems include Latin America’s highest rate of inflation, one of the region’s highest murder rates and corruption that critics say is among the worst in the world.
While Chavez has been away in Cuba, a deadly prison riot left 22 dead, and at least two soldiers and one prisoner were killed days later when troops stormed the prison. The riot prompted the government to announce plans for a new ministry dedicated to prison issues.
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