As Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff coasted to victory in last year’s presidential election, one doubt kept cropping up — would the career bureaucrat be savvy enough to handle Brazil’s dog-eat-dog political world?
After a turbulent few weeks that have shaken her young administration, the evidence is mounting that she isn’t — a failing that could have serious policy consequences as the government faces a slowing economy and high inflation.
Rousseff has emerged weaker from a scandal that has embroiled her influential chief of staff Antonio Palocci and revealed cracks in the coalition that exacerbated a defeat in Congress last week.
At the heart of the crisis are doubts over the leadership style of Rousseff, a former leftist militant who lacks the easy charm of former Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
Her advisers accept she paid too little attention to political matters in her first five months in office, focusing more on technical and administrative issues.
That left the government vulnerable when revelations emerged last month that Palocci, whose position now appears at risk, had enjoyed a surge in his personal wealth that could result in a federal investigation. Rousseff’s problems have been compounded by lingering health issues following her successful cancer treatment in 2009.
Aides say she has learned from her mistakes and is devoting her attention to defending Palocci — a Wall Street favorite whose departure would likely rattle markets — and patching up ties with her main coalition partner, the PMDB party.
However, the risk is that Rousseff’s agenda will get bogged down further as she is forced to give more concessions to lawmakers and her approval ratings likely fade along with Brazil’s economic growth.
“The political cost for Dilma to govern could rise sharply,” said Cristiano Noronha, an analyst for political consultancy ARKO.
One senior government official said that Palocci had been weakened by the scandal, but Rousseff would not seek to replace him unless damaging new evidence emerges over his earnings as a consultant while he was a lawmaker.
“It’s difficult to say whether the worst is over,” the official said.
Nothing illustrated Rousseff’s problems more starkly than the sight last week of Lula striding back on to the political stage in Brasilia five months after he bowed out with stratospheric approval ratings.
He was there to scratch backs and soothe the concerns of disgruntled members of the ruling Workers’ Party and the PMDB, which turned rebellious in a vote on a new forestry code over what it perceives as a lack of favors from the Planalto presidential palace.
He helped broker a truce between the coalition allies but the return of the former union boss, who has not ruled out running for president again in 2014, was a clear blow to Rousseff’s efforts to shape her own presidency.
Rousseff did not request his help and was dismayed that he did not do it in a more low-profile way, another senior government aide said.
“Dilma has been gravely affected by Lula’s interference in the crisis,” said Amaury de Souza, a senior partner at consultancy MCM Associados. “It essentially showed that he is the power behind the throne, that he will come and sort things out whenever necessary.”
Rousseff could well bounce back from the first major crisis of her administration. Lula himself was almost felled by a far bigger corruption scandal in his first term that led him to pay more attention to political coordination with Congress.
However, the lower house defeat on the forestry bill last week was an ominous sign for a government that has yet to advance an agenda that includes bills to reform Brazil’s sclerotic tax system and tap huge new oil reserves.
Rousseff’s low-profile approach — reinforced by health problems that have resulted in her taking frequent breaks — has made her appear aloof in a political culture that thrives on personal contact.
Backed by a resounding election win and improved majorities in Congress, Rousseff made a conscious effort in the first weeks of her presidency to emerge from the shadow of Lula.
She projected an image of quiet diligence and efficiency, and insisted on filling prized political posts on “merit” rather than as political favors to coalition allies.
Lawmakers from the Workers’ Party and the PMDB have -complained of a lack of access to the president, whose minister responsible for relations with Congress is regarded as a political lightweight with little influence.
While the PMDB has not joined opposition calls for Palocci to face a congressional investigation, it is widely seen as using the case to wring concessions from Rousseff.
One government source said that Palocci’s strong influence had slowed down decision-making in the first months of the administration and that his lower profile as a result of the scandal had helped to speed things up.
“Everything is suddenly going forward,” he said. “This could be great for the government. If he’s weaker, it will be much easier to get things done.”
However, most analysts believe the loss of Palocci, who is a talented communicator and a strong proponent of tough anti-inflation policies, would be a major blow to Rousseff.
“Palocci is seen as a guarantor for market-friendly economic policies. Doubts over him spell doubts over the economy,” Noronha said.
His chances of survival may depend on whether the federal prosecutor’s office decides to open an investigation into the 20-fold rise in his wealth when he was a federal deputy from 2007 until last year.
While no specific allegations of wrongdoing have been made, the suspicion is that he used his consulting firm to peddle influence — something he denies.
Nearly half of China’s major cities are suffering “moderate to severe” levels of subsidence, putting millions of people at risk of flooding, especially as sea levels rise, according to a study of nationwide satellite data released yesterday. The authors of the paper, published by the journal Science, found that 45 percent of China’s urban land was sinking faster than 3mm per year, with 16 percent at more than 10mm per year, driven not only by declining water tables, but also the sheer weight of the built environment. With China’s urban population already in excess of 900 million people, “even a small portion
UNSETTLING IMAGES: The scene took place in front of TV crews covering the Trump trial, with a CNN anchor calling it an ‘emotional and unbelievably disturbing moment’ A man who doused himself in an accelerant and set himself on fire outside the courthouse where former US president Donald Trump is on trial has died, police said yesterday. The New York City Police Department (NYPD) said the man was declared dead by staff at an area hospital. The man was in Collect Pond Park at about 1:30pm on Friday when he took out pamphlets espousing conspiracy theories, tossed them around, then doused himself in an accelerant and set himself on fire, officials and witnesses said. A large number of police officers were nearby when it happened. Some officers and bystanders rushed
HYPOCRISY? The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs yesterday asked whether Biden was talking about China or the US when he used the word ‘xenophobic’ US President Joe Biden on Wednesday called for a hike in steel tariffs on China, accusing Beijing of cheating as he spoke at a campaign event in Pennsylvania. Biden accused China of xenophobia, too, in a speech to union members in Pittsburgh. “They’re not competing, they’re cheating. They’re cheating and we’ve seen the damage here in America,” Biden said. Chinese steel companies “don’t need to worry about making a profit because the Chinese government is subsidizing them so heavily,” he said. Biden said he had called for the US Trade Representative to triple the tariff rates for Chinese steel and aluminum if Beijing was
Beijing is continuing to commit genocide and crimes against humanity against Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in its western Xinjiang province, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a report published on Monday, ahead of his planned visit to China this week. The State Department’s annual human rights report, which documents abuses recorded all over the world during the previous calendar year, repeated language from previous years on the treatment of Muslims in Xinjiang, but the publication raises the issue ahead of delicate talks, including on the war in Ukraine and global trade, between the top U.S. diplomat and Chinese