When TV broadcasters suddenly went off the air in Thailand recently, many people thought it could only mean one thing: the start of a military coup.
Authorities were quick to assure the public the three-hour blackout on April 21 was the result of a faulty satellite, not a putsch, but the coup speculation in a country that has seen 18 military takeovers since the 1930s illustrates the depth of uncertainty ahead of elections in late June or early July.
The odds favor the Democrat Party of Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva in the coming poll, but he’s unlikely to win by a comfortable margin. And regardless of who prevails, neither side may respect the result.
Photo: EPA
If Abhisit loses, his royalist and military backers are unlikely to give way quietly, possibly using judicial intervention or a coup to restore the status quo.
However, if he wins, the red-shirted supporters of his political nemesis, self-exiled former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, could take to the streets in a new wave of anti-government protests.
Siripan Noksuan, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, said Thailand’s five-year political crisis could intensify if Abhisit fails and the Thaksin-allied opposition Puea Thai Party wins.
“If Puea Thai manages to form a government, against all odds, there would likely be a coup,” she said. “If there is another coup, it will be a big turning point for Thailand. The resistance will be strong and would likely bring bloodshed.”
The poll is 46-year-old Abhisit’s first popular test, giving him a chance to answer accusations he came to power illegitimately in 2008 when a court dissolved the ruling pro-Thaksin party and the military helped to piece together his coalition.
His party has not won an election in nearly two decades and the British-born, Oxford-educated prime minister has always struggled to connect with Thailand’s working-class masses.
However, several factors are in his favor: The opposition is in disarray, Thailand’s economy — Southeast Asia’s second-largest — is performing strongly and Abhisit has rolled out a raft of populist economic policies and subsidies targeting the poor, the vast majority of voters.
His campaign staff say his strategy is to convince voters Thailand should look ahead rather than dwell on its troubled past, especially the weeks of unrest last year in which 91 people were killed, Bangkok paralyzed and the government was nearly felled.
His victory could give Thailand a rare dose of policy continuity after four changes of government since 2006. That’s encouraging for investors eager for a continuation of the status quo following a 41 percent rise in Thai stock prices last year. Stocks and the baht currency are up again this year.
However, Abhisit is unlikely to win decisively. That means -Thailand can expect another -coalition government and more back-room deals with shady figures in smaller parties, a recipe for corruption.
“That is really what is pulling this government back, this kind of coalition government that relies on appeasing the demands of smaller parties and giving them control of the Commerce Ministry and various other important ministries,” said Danny Richards, Southeast Asia specialist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
“It really undermines the quality of policymaking. It is unlikely to change,” he said.
Although the mostly working-class “Red Shirt” protesters say they will honor the outcome, any perception of foul play or behind-the-scenes interference could trigger an ugly backlash.
The opposition launched its campaign yesterday with the slogan: “Thaksin Thinks, Puea Thai Acts,” hoping to tap the popularity of the 61-year-old ethnic--Chinese telecommunications tycoon, whose party was the first and only one in Thai history to win two landslide elections before he was toppled in a 2006 coup.
He was later convicted of breaching conflict-of-interest laws and sentenced in absentia to two years in prison.
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