Most of his allies have abandoned him, a popular uprising against him is now in its third month and is rapidly growing, but Yemen’s embattled president has so far managed to cling to power.
The secret of Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s survival is that the country’s best trained and equipped military units are led by close family members who are unquestionably loyal, even troops that defected to the opposition are no match for them.
A month ago, many believed Saleh’s fall was only a matter of days away. His own tribe demanded his ouster. A wave of party members, lawmakers, Cabinet members, police commanders and senior diplomats abandoned him.
Photo: EPA
Most importantly, several top army commanders, including a longtime confidant who heads a powerful armored division, defected to the opposition and deployed their tanks in the streets of the capital Sana’a to back protesters.
However, on Wednesday, Saleh appeared as confident as ever.
“We will remain steadfast like the mountains of Eidan, Nuqum and Zafar,” he said in a speech to women’s groups.
Saleh has over the past two months used violence to try to quell the unrest, with his security forces killing at least 120 protesters so far. He has also offered concessions, including a pledge not to run again for president or allow his son to succeed him, but to no avail.
Now his survival hinges almost entirely on the loyalty of the Republican Guard and Special Forces, two separate branches of the military led by his son and one-time heir apparent, Ahmed.
Also loyal to Saleh is the anti-riot police led by his nephew, Yahya, as well as the president’s personal protection force led by another nephew, Tariq.
A third nephew, Amar, heads the National Security Authority, a domestic intelligence agency with its own fighting force. The Air Force is led by Saleh’s stepbrother Mohammed Saleh al-Ahmar.
The armed forces are estimated to number about 800,000. Among them, the forces led by members of the president’s immediate family are thought to number about 150,000 to 200,000.
The main force pitted against them is the 1st Armored Division, commanded by Major General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, the Saleh confidant who defected to the uprising on March 21. The division, numbering about 50,000, is a veteran of the war against northern Shiite rebels from 2004 to 2009.
If it comes to a clash, however, other factors could come into play. A military analyst, retired Brigadier Abdullah al-Subeihi, says tribal loyalties are far stronger than loyalty to the state or the armed forces.
“It is true that the Republican Guard and anti-riot police are larger and better armed, but in the case of conflict, they will do what their tribal leaders tell them,” he said.
Meanwhile, a senior government official said the head of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Abdullatif bin Rashid al-Zayani, arrived in Yemen yesterday for talks with Saleh and opposition representatives in a bid to resolve the crisis.
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