The youngest son of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il seems certain to inherit power in the totalitarian state’s second dynastic succession after his mentor was promoted to a top post, analysts said yesterday.
A reshuffle Monday saw Kim’s brother-in-law Jang Song-thaek, who is close to youngest son Kim Jong-un, appointed as a vice chairman of the top decision-making body the National Defence Commission.
Analysts say the move makes Jang, 64, the second most powerful man in the state as it prepares for life after the ailing 68-year-old leader.
“Jang’s promotion is seen as a move to speed up the country’s dynastic succession,” Dongguk University professor Kim Yong-hyun said.
Kim Jong-il, who suffered a stroke in 2008, has never formally announced a successor.
Jang will serve as a crucial middleman between the leader and other power centers to strengthen unity and transfer power in a stable manner, Paik Hak-soon of Seoul’s Sejong Institute think tank said.
“Jang’s dramatic rise to power, backed by Kim Jong-il, shows that North Korea is formalizing and finalizing its planned father-to-son power transfer,” he said.
Jong-un is expected to be declared the eventual successor in 2012, the year the country has set for becoming a “great, powerful and prosperous” nation, Paik said.
Little is known about the youngest son, believed to be 27, and no photo of him as an adult has been obtained outside the country.
Yonhap news agency yesterday published what it said were photographs from his time at school in Switzerland — where he reportedly studied English, French and German and avidly followed US basketball games.
Jang was already seen as the North’s second most powerful man before he fell out of favor in early 2004 — reportedly because of his luxurious lifestyle.
He made a comeback in late 2005 and in October 2007 was appointed to head a party department that supervises police, judges and prosecutors.
Analysts say Jang has maintained a solid power base through building networks in the party, government and military. Some saw him as effectively running the country when Kim Jong-il fell ill in 2008.
“Kim [Jong-il] may allow Jang to take on more day-to-day affairs without weakening his own absolute power,” Kim Yong-hyun said.
Korea University professor Yoo Ho-yeol told a seminar the son would need a guardian like Jang when the North formally announces the succession in 2012.
“Jong-un has many hurdles to overcome in order to rule as successor because of his youth and lack of experience and therefore will need mentoring by seniors and working groups for quite a long time,” he said.
Yoo also warned of a possible power struggle if Kim Jong-il dies before his son is in place, since some elites may question the legitimacy of another hereditary succession. Kim Jong-il took over from his own father, founding North Korean president Kim Il-sung.
However, Kim Yong-hyun believes Jang could not take power for himself.
“Jang is a bureaucrat who has long served to protect Kim’s family. Despite his rise in the hierarchy, there is no chance for him to become leader,” Kim Yong-hyun said.
Meanwhile, the regime is trying to calm unrest sparked by bungled economic policies. The North suffers persistent severe food shortages, worsened by a botched currency change ordered in November last year to try to clamp down on a burgeoning free economy.
Former North Korean premier Kim Yong-il, who was sacked Monday and replaced by former Pyongyang party chief Choe Yong-rim, reportedly made a rare semi-public apology in February for the chaos.
“North Korea is trying to calm public anger over bungled economic policies. It is expected to seek economic development in a stable manner,” Kim Yong-hyun said.
Yang Moo-jin, of Seoul’s University of North Korean Studies, said the appointment of a senior party figure such as Choe “shows that Kim Jong-il wants the ruling party to lead the Cabinet directly to overcome the economic crisis.”
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