Iraq’s two largest Shiite electoral blocs have announced they formed an alliance that gives them a strong chance of setting up the next government, though they have yet to work out the contentious question of who would become prime minister.
The coalition deal between Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law coalition and the conservative Shiite Iraqi National Alliance leaves them just four parliamentary seats shy of a ruling majority.
The union of the Shiite blocs could further alienate Iraq’s Sunni minority and threatens to stir further violence at an especially fragile moment in Iraq as US troops prepare to withdraw.
It could also ensure that neighboring Shiite power Iran maintains influence in Iraqi affairs.
The coalition deal was announced at a news conference late Tuesday, but the question of who would be prime minister could threaten to derail the Shiite blocs’ plans to form a government.
“Despite the challenges and the risks, both coalitions have agreed to announce the formation of a single parliamentary bloc,” Abdul-Razaq al-Kazemi of the Iraqi National Alliance said.
Al-Kazemi was flanked by officials from State of Law and the movement of radical Moqtada al-Sadr, whose followers make up the strongest group in the Iraqi National Alliance.
The Shiite alliance came about because the Shiite parties were worried about former prime minister and al-Maliki rival Ayad Allawi’s chances of forming a government and decided to outmaneuver him, Joost Hiltermann from the International Crisis Group said.
“The way to prevent Allawi from forming a government is to make sure he doesn’t get a chance,” he said.
Tuesday’s news raises questions about what role the Sunnis, who widely backed Allawi, would have in any new government the Shiite alliance would be able to form. Neither State of Law nor the National Alliance have much more than token Sunni support.
Forming a government that excludes them would deepen Sunni disillusionment and sow further instability.
The alliance immediately drew the ire of Allawi’s Iraqiya. A spokeswoman for the bloc, Maysoun al-Damlouji, warned that this indicated a return to sectarianism. She said the alliance was designed to undermine Iraqiya and, alluding to Iran, she said it was carrying out the will of a “neighboring country.”
The Shiite alliance will likely try to lure Sunnis from Allawi’s coalition in an attempt to boost their numbers and give their coalition at least some degree of legitimacy with the Sunni community, Hiltermann said.
Even with Tuesday’s deal, serious hurdles remain.
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