Voter registration for a Palestinian election failed to get under way as scheduled on Tuesday, adding to signs that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas might be bluffing about a make-or-break vote in January.
If that turned out to be the case, he may also be bluffing about quitting the presidency. His real aims may be to repair badly damaged Palestinian unity and to bolster US support for his position in peace talks with Israel.
But if it is no bluff, efforts to resolve the Middle East conflict will enter uncharted waters. The election will split the Palestinian movement — with Hamas shouldering responsibility for the split — and at the same time remove from the scene the man the West counts on as peacemaker with Israel.
Abbas called the election last month in line with the Constitution, while knowing it would probably be rejected by his Islamist rivals Hamas, who rule Gaza.
Analysts saw a gamble that Hamas would balk at formalizing the split and finally agree to a “reconciliation” pact.
Last week, citing disillusionment with the faltering peace process and what he believes is Washington’s failure to back legitimate Palestinian demands, Abbas announced he personally did not plan to seek re-election on Jan. 24. Tuesday was supposed to see the start of a five-day process of registering an estimated 260,000 young Palestinians who have reached voting age since the last election in 2006.
None of 1,000 registration centers in the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip was open to take names. The independent Palestinian Central Election Commission (CEC) that organized ballots in 1996, 2005 and 2006 had no comment.
Along with an absence of political posters or banners, a total lack of campaign excitement was another sign that the election date may be a political fiction.
“These are all indications that the elections will not take place on the 24th,” a Western diplomat said.
Officials were already talking of alternative scenarios.
“The CEC will tell the president in a week from now whether they can do it or not,” said Nabil Abu Rdainah, a top aide to Abbas.
If not, he said, Abbas would look into “other options.”
There was no indication what these might include, but one alternative is Abbas stays in power.
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