Whatever the outcome of Iran’s June 12 presidential election, the administration of US President Barack Obama hopes Tehran will end months of stalling and respond to Washington’s overtures for better relations.
Whether the winner is firebrand anti-American incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or his more moderate key rival, former Iranian prime minister Mirhossein Mousavi, the prevailing view is that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei calls the shots.
“Ultimately, the most important decisions on where this goes will be made by the Ayatollah and not the new [Iranian] president,” said a senior US official, who asked not to be named because Washington does not want to be seen as interfering in the election, which could result in a run-off on June 19.
But experts say a win by Mousavi could improve the climate for either bilateral talks or those between major powers and Tehran to settle disputes over its nuclear program, which the West suspects is aimed at building a bomb. Tehran says the program is for peaceful purposes to produce much-needed power.
“It would be much better if we were dealing with an Iranian president who lowered the rhetorical tension level rather than one who seems to constantly look for ways to increase it,” said Bruce Riedel with the Brookings Institution.
“Whoever is in that position can help to set a tone that makes the process of engagement more likely to happen than less,” added Riedel, a former CIA analyst.
During a feisty televised debate with Ahmadinejad on Wednesday, Mousavi accused the incumbent of humiliating the nation by adopting “extremist” foreign policies, a view the Supreme Leader mildly criticized later.
Mousavi pledged to continue nuclear talks with major powers if he is elected president, in contrast to Ahmadinejad, who has ruled out such negotiations with the US, Russia, China, France, Germany and the UK.
“If Ahmadinejad is re-elected, it will be very difficult to have a rational discussion with the Iranians,” said former US ambassador to Egypt and Israel, Ned Walker.
Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour said Ahmadinejad also played into the hands of US domestic politics, fueling the argument of those who opposed dealing with Iran.
“His diatribes toward Israel and his Holocaust denial make it far more difficult for any US administration to acquiesce on Iran’s enrichment of uranium,” said Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Some experts with experience dealing with Iran say Washington has no choice but to continue on its engagement path, kicked off by Obama in his inauguration speech in January and followed through with small steps since.
Nicholas Burns, who handled the Iranian nuclear dossier for the administration of former US president George W. Bush, said Obama had set the post-election scene well and was also laying the groundwork for more sanctions if needed.
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