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Polish PM balks at US missile base

Poland's new prime minister broke from the staunchly pro-US stance of his predecessor, saying in comments published on Monday he will not rush a decision on hosting a US missile defense base -- a tough line that appears to underscore the Bush administration's weakening clout with allies.

With new leadership coming soon to Washington, Poland and the Czech Republic may be asking themselves: Is it worth toeing Bush's line on missile defense when the next president may pull the plug on the program?

The two nations attracted the ire of Russia -- an increasingly assertive and powerful neighbor -- by supporting the bid to build the defense system on their soil. The calculation may be that the overriding diplomatic priority, for now, has become avoiding a further deterioration of relations with the Kremlin.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told the Polish edition of Newsweek in comments published on Monday that Poland "definitely shouldn't hurry on the missile defense issue. ... Remember, the shield is supposed to defend America, not Poland."

Tusk's geopolitical vision is also starkly different from that of Jaroslaw Kaczynski, whom he ousted as prime minister in October elections. Kaczynski, along with his twin brother, President Lech Kazcynski, base much of their political philosophy on a suspicion of Moscow and a belief in Washington as the ultimate guarantor of security.

Bush's lame duck status has made it easier for Tusk to strike a different diplomatic course.

"The new Polish administration believes there's no point in pushing ahead with this now, there's only things to lose," said Robin Shepherd, a trans-Atlantic relations specialist at Britain's Chatham House think tank.

"Far better to wait and see what happens when there's a new American president," he said.

Similar scenarios are playing out elsewhere in Europe.

European heavyweight France has recently dramatically improved the tenor of its trans-Atlantic relationship under new pro-US President Nicolas Sarkozy. But a look at the details of the diplomacy reveals a different picture: A possible deal on France rejoining NATO's military command and other crucial policy issues -- including Middle East peace -- are essentially on hold.

"People here in France are aware that making deals with Bush, well, that it's not the best time to do it at the moment," said Marcin Zaborowski, a specialist in trans-Atlantic relations at the EU Institute for Security Studies in Paris. "They will be more willing to compromise or make deals with those who will replace him."

Some experts, however, say it's still too early for European powers to take a passive approach to ties with the US.

Simon Serfaty, a senior adviser for the Europe program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said that certain issues are too pressing to put on hold, and that Germany, France and Britain have "determined they should not wait for the next administration."

"They understand there is some urgency at this moment," he said. "They cannot afford for 2008 to go by and start anew on issues with regard to Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Israel-Palestinian conflict," Serfaty said.
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