Challenges lie ahead for Japan's Abe

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe listens to reporters during a press conference at a hotel in Sydey, Australia, yesterday afternoon after attending the APEC summit. PHOTO: AP

Beleaguered Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe faces a battle for his political life as parliament opens today, with a newly empowered opposition set to do all it can to bring him down.

Abe's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was crushed in July elections after a series of scandals, handing the opposition control of the upper house of parliament for the first time since the LDP was founded in 1955.

A key battle in the two-month parliamentary session will be over legislation on extending a Japanese naval mission that re-fuels planes and ships for US-led forces in Afghanistan.

Abe, who returns to Tokyo from the APEC summit in Sydney, has received support from a slew of Western nations for prolonging the mission. But the center-left opposition wants Japan to bring home its ships and has not budged, setting the stage for Abe to suffer international embarrassment.

The opposition is also expected to flex its muscle in parliament by seeking symbolic censure motions against scandal-hit Cabinet ministers and possibly Abe himself.

Abe, an outspoken conservative and Japan's first prime minister born after World War II, took office nearly a year ago with a popular, youthful image.

But his Cabinet has been plagued by scandals and gaffes, with four ministers quitting and another committing suicide.

He reshuffled his cabinet on Aug. 27 in hopes of a fresh start, but just one week later his new farm minister resigned over financial wrongdoing. Similar allegations have also been leveled against the latest farm minister.

With even some LDP backbenchers asking Abe to quit, analysts and media speculate it is only a matter of time before he steps down or calls a snap general election.

Opposition leader Ichiro Ozawa, known as a brusque but shrewd political tactician, has instructed his Democratic party to get ready for early polls, saying the parliament session "may be an important turning point in politics."

"I think a snap general election within this year or early next year is one of the scenarios," said Jun Iio, professor of politics at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.

"If Abe's government proves to be too weak to operate in parliament, then the LDP may judge that a snap election at a very early date is better for them before the Democratic Party is completely ready for an election," he said.

"At the moment, the Democrats have prepared only 200 candidates for 300 constituencies in the lower house, and under these circumstances, LDP candidates could take advantage of their higher name recognition," Iio said.

But Iio thinks a more likely scenario is that Abe will eventually hand over to former foreign minister Taro Aso, a veteran LDP politician who became the party's secretary general last month, and that Aso would call a snap election.

In his policy speech to the lower house session, Abe is expected to focus on "shadows of reforms" started by his popular predecessor Junichiro Koizumi, addressing the gap between cities and rural areas, which have not enjoyed the fruits of Japan's economic recovery, public broadcaster NHK reported.

Rural voters deserted the LDP in droves in the recent election, failing to relate to Abe's agenda, which focused on building Japan's global standing and rewriting the US-imposed post-war pacifist Constitution.

Iio said Abe hoped to hold out until next summer when Japan hosts the summit of the G8 industrial nations.

"What Prime Minister Abe wishes would be to survive the upcoming parliament session and host the Group of Eight summit next year, where he expects to regain popularity, and then call a snap election next summer," Iio said.