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    Coup possible: ex-Mugabe aide

    COMPELLING FORCES: With internal dynamics shifting against him and neighbors seeing him as a liability, the Zimbabwean strongman finds himself against the wall

    THE GUARDIAN, JOHANNESBURG
    Thursday, Mar 29, 2007, Page 6

    "The timing of this summit is very smart. It has thrown a spanner in the works of Mugabe's orchestrated campaign to run for another presidential term. I see South Africa's hand behind this move."

    Jonathan Moyo, former Robert Mugabe aide

    President Robert Mugabe's time as Zimbabwe's ruler is drawing to a close and his last days in office could be "nasty, short and brutish," his former right-hand man, Jonathan Moyo, said on Tuesday.

    He said Mugabe would face a "very high threat of a palace coup" if he refused to retire voluntarily.

    "Compelling forces are gathering against Mugabe's continued rule," said the independent member of parliament who broke with the president two years ago.

    Mugabe confronts neighboring leaders today at a summit of the 14-nation Southern African Development Community (SADC) in Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania.

    The body announced the "extraordinary summit" only on Monday and southern African leaders have scrambled to change schedules to consider Zimbabwe's crisis.

    "Neighboring leaders and factions within ZANU-PF agree that Mugabe has become a liability," said Moyo, the former information minister.

    "They are pressing Mugabe to retire when his current term expires in 2008. Mugabe does not want to accept that, but even a master politician has a limited number of tricks in his hat and Mugabe is running out of ploys that he can use. No one will buy his anti-Western, anti-imperialist rhetoric any more," Moyo said.

    "The timing of this summit is very smart. It has thrown a spanner in the works of Mugabe's orchestrated campaign to run for another presidential term. I see South Africa's hand behind this move," Moyo said.

    He added that Mugabe was planning to steamroller his party to endorse him for another presidential term at ZANU-PF's central committee meeting on Friday, but neighboring leaders had upset his plan.

    "I have been to these SADC summits and I know that behind closed doors the leaders are brutally frank. They will remind Mugabe that he told them he would retire at the end of this term in 2008. They will tell him he must do that," Moyo said.

    Namibia and Angola have been Mugabe's strongest supporters within the SADC, but Moyo said they had been persuaded by South Africa and Zambia to stop protecting the Zimbabwean leader.

    "The statement issued at the close of the summit will not strongly condemn Mugabe, that is not the way SADC works. But I am certain that in the meeting the leaders will have told him in no uncertain terms that he must retire," Moyo said.

    "They will tell Mugabe that his rule in Zimbabwe is dragging down the whole southern African region. They will say Zimbabwe's economic collapse is negatively affecting all neighboring countries," he added.

    There are two factions in ZANU-PF opposed to Mugabe, led by Vice President Joice Mujuru and Housing Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa.

    "These factions have already blocked Mugabe's plan to extend his term by two years until 2010. Now they will oppose Mugabe's plan to run for another presidential term," Moyo said.

    "The region, public opinion and the majority of leaders in ZANU-PF agree on one thing, Mugabe is the problem. They know that as long as Mugabe is the leader, things will get worse in Zimbabwe," he added.

    Moyo said Mugabe was likely to fight to stay in power.
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