The spectacular rise of greenhorn conservatives ahead of elections today in the once hard-left Canadian province of Quebec has moved the long feud between federalists and separatists toward compromise.
For the first time in decades, an alternative has emerged to the staunch federalist Liberals and hardline separatist Parti Quebecois, dousing early hopes of either forming a majority government.
Midway through the campaign, Mario Dumont's rightist Action Democratique du Quebec (ADQ) surged within a few percentage points of the frontrunners.
"Mario Dumont represents something radical, not extremist," said political scientist Christian Dufour, at the National School of Public Administration.
"In a society that is consensual and compromising like Quebec, it's something new," he said, seeing in Dumont possibly Quebec's greatest -- albeit right-wing -- leader.
"Political elite and pundits tend to view Dumont as a negative influence, a reflection of a fed-up electorate, a parking lot for people who do not know who to support, reactionary," Dufour said.
"But he actually represents something positive: hope," he said.
French-speaking Quebec has long been a battleground between some Francophones who want to break away from Canada and form their own state and others who want to stay firmly in mainly English-speaking Canada.
The ADQ held only five of 125 seats in Quebec's National Assembly before the election, but is now poised to win more than 30 seats, pollsters said, fueled by vows to prune government, reform welfare and partly privatize healthcare.
The party's neutral position between staunch federalism and Quebec independence -- a recurring debate in Canadian politics -- has also seduced many Quebecers who dream of nationhood but are wary of letting go of Canada. The ADQ favors more autonomy for Quebec, but not independence.
Parti Quebecois leader Andre Boisclair, meanwhile, has promised to hold a plebiscite on breaking away from Canada, the second-largest country in the world geographically, if his party wins today's provincial election.
Independence
Quebec voted twice against independence in 1980 and 1995. Federalists led by Liberal leader Jean Charest narrowly won the second ballot.
"Quebec autonomy implies a more decentralized Canadian federation, which is what we want, instead of outright independence," Dumont said after shaking hands with voters at a local restaurant.
During the campaign, the ADQ seized on voters' fatigue over growing demands from immigrants to reconcile their ethnic cultures, while refusing to integrate into Quebec society.
He denounced those who allowed Quebec traditions to be watered down, creating divisions between multicultural and cosmopolitan Montreal and the rest of the province, mostly rural, with roots in northern France.
In doing so, Dumont has cleverly pushed Quebec nationalism, but stopped short of jumping into an uncertain future without the rest of Canada for the largest French-speaking community in North America.
A recent poll showed the ADQ with 26 percent support, versus 30 percent for the Liberals and 32 percent for the Parti Quebecois.
Dark horse
In Montreal, the ADQ trailed in third spot, but Dumont is the dark horse outside Canada's second-largest metropolis, with 41 percent support.
Political analysts say the contest today is too close to call, forcing observers in Ottawa to the edge of their seats.
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