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Second nuclear test unlikely in N Korea: politicians, analysts

After months of escalating rhetoric, North Korea in early October told the world it was ready to conduct its first nuclear test. Just days later it made good on its word.

Now, almost three months after the Oct. 9 underground blast, renewed questions are being asked about the communist country's nuclear intentions.

Does North Korea again have its finger on the atomic trigger? Or is renewed dialogue with the US and other countries committed to stopping its nuclear program likely to continue?

"North Korea has the technical capability to conduct a nuclear test at any time," Paik Hak-soon, a North Korean expert at the Sejong Institute think tank outside Seoul, said on Saturday.

But he said Pyongyang was unlikely to go ahead with another provocation for now as it was focused on winning US concessions after the October blast, though it would likely maintain the option as a pressure tactic should negotiations with Washington stumble.

Concerns about North Korea heightened abruptly on Friday in Asia after US broadcaster ABC News reported Pyongyang might be preparing for another test. Citing unnamed US defense officials, the network said the moves were similar to steps taken before the October blast.

Top US and South Korean officials, however, moved quickly to douse speculation of an imminent test.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her South Korean counterpart, Song Min-soon, told a press conference on Friday in Washington there was no indication such a development was imminent.

Still, the report was enough to rattle nerves.

In Seoul, shares fell on Friday to their lowest level in more than three weeks, while the country's currency declined to its lowest point in more than a month.

About three weeks after its Oct. 9 nuclear test, North Korea agreed to return to stalled talks on its nuclear program also involving China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the US.

The six-party forum, launched in 2003, convened late last month in Beijing after a year-long boycott by the North, but little was achieved.

Still, that's probably enough to cap another nuclear test, said Koh Yu-hwan, a North Korea expert at Seoul's Dongguk University.

"The North doesn't need to take any risk as long as the six-way process is under way," he said.

US State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said on Friday that the six countries were expected to gather again this month and suggested it was the US view that the North was unlikely to scuttle those plans with another test.

Noriyuki Suzuki -- a director of Radiopress, a Japanese news agency that monitors North Korea's media and analyzes the country's power structure -- also said an immediate test was unlikely.

"If North Korea conducts a test right now, it's highly likely that the country will be further isolated in the six-way talks, ties with China and South Korea will deteriorate, and the talks on financial sanctions [with the US] will likely be halted," Suzuki said on Saturday.

"I don't think it is reasonable to conduct a test at this point," Suzuki said.
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