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UK submarine nuclear arsenal likely to be cut

British Prime Minister Tony Blair was set to promise yesterday to cut the number of operational nuclear warheads on Britain's Trident submarines by a fifth, from 200 to about 160.

The reduction is part of Blair's campaign to persuade MPs that the government must start work almost immediately on plans detailed in a white paper to build a replacement fleet.

One less trident

Blair was scheduled to announce the Cabinet's decision in the House of Commons yesterday afternoon and was also expected to say that the number of new Trident submarines could be reduced from four to three without reducing the UK deterrent's effectiveness.

The white paper also also said that the new Trident system will cost less than £25 billion (US$49.3 billion) -- 5 percent of the annual defense budget and about 0.1 percent of GDP, government sources said yesterday.

Some ministers have rejected claims that Britain no longer needs nuclear weapons to deter potential enemies and have embraced the "insurance policy" argument that it is impossible to predict the shape of threats in 20 years.

The promised reduction in Trident, whose warheads will have been halved from 300 since 1997 when Labour came to power, is unlikely to appease critics of nuclear weapons or MPs in all parties who challenge Downing Street's view that Trident must not only be renewed, but that a decision is urgent.

With a public debate followed by a Commons vote in February set to follow the white paper, ministers hope they will win the vote comfortably. But they accept they will need Conservative party support to push the measure through.

Up to 40 Labour MPs oppose nuclear weapons but the key group Blair seeks to persuade, however, are those -- including the Liberal Democrats -- who think there is no need to take an early decision. The Tories remain pro-deterrent but their defense spokesman, Liam Fox, said yesterday they will only "replace it when necessary."

One Labour minister seemed confident that the government's view would prevail.

"There will be some trouble in the parliamentary party. My activists will not want it either, but they will not object to it," the minister said.

The white paper also rejects arguments urging a delay on a decision to commission new submarines by at least five years, as the Liberal Democrat leader, Menzies Campbell, and many independent analysts have proposed.

Given the long lead times between decisions and operational availability -- 14 years between the Trident decision and the day it replaced Polaris -- it would be too risky. Delay would also not be cost effective, mainly because nuclear reactors which propel the current boats need replacing soon.

The white paper said that a sea-based system is the only "credible" nuclear deterrent available, rejecting arguments for a land-based cruise missile system.

The government has also rejected the argument that a Trident submarine need not be continuously at sea.

Instead it suggests that advances in technology may allow Britain to manage on three rather than four submarines, a decision which would also save up to £2 billion.

Protests

Anti-nuclear campaigners intended to step up their protest to coincide with the presentation of the white paper.

The Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament, accompanied by a number of MPs, were scheduled to hand an alternative white paper to the prime minister's office at No 10 Downing Street and express concern about the amount of time being given to discuss the issue.
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