A marathon review of vote tallies to determine who has won Mexico's closest presidential race in history will be a key test for an electoral system that has been championed as a shining example for emerging democracies.
A preliminary count that included about 38 million of the 41 million ballots cast on Sunday showed Felipe Calderon of President Vicente Fox's conservative National Action Party ahead by just 1 percentage point. The second-place finisher, charismatic leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, has questioned that count and claims he won.
A review by the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE), that started yesterday will be crucial in proving the election was clean to a nation that emerged six years ago from 71 years of one-party rule replete with election fraud. Failure to convince the public and candidates it has been a fair vote could spark widespread civil unrest.
PHOTO: AP
"Such a close race is a nightmare scenario," said Ted Lewis, an election observer for the San Francisco-based rights organization Global Exchange. "If the ruling party wins by a hair, a lot of people will jump to the conclusion that something is amiss."
Lopez Obrador's party has claimed some votes were recorded twice while others weren't tallied at all, and has called on IFE to recount all 41 million ballots, a Herculean task that could take weeks. Lopez Obrador also has claimed that 3 million votes were "missing."
"The entire handling of the preliminary count was irregular," the candidate told Mexico's TV Azteca in a late-night interview on Tuesday. "We have to tell it like it is ... We are convinced that we won and we're going to prove it."
"We can't accept results that don't correspond to reality," Lopez Obrador added.
IFE president Luis Carlos Ugalde told a news conference on Tuesday that all parties were aware from the beginning that any ballots with "inconsistencies" would not be included in the preliminary tally, and clarified that the total number of uncounted votes was 2.6 million.
If all of the votes were validated, Calderon would still lead by 0.64 percent, Ugalde said.
The IFE plans to review the uncounted votes simultaneously with vote tallies at the country's 130,000 polling places, Ugalde said, adding that officials will open up ballot boxes to conduct individual counts only if there is evidence of specific irregularities.
Ugalde said a president-elect will be announced when the count is complete, a process that could take days.
Mexico became accustomed to widespread accusations of electoral shenanigans during seven decades of rule by the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI.
The most controversial incident came in 1988, when leftist candidate Cuauhtemoc Cardenas was leading in the presidential race before a computerized vote-counting system overseen by the government crashed. Officials later announced that PRI candidate Carlos Salinas de Gortari had won.
Fears of such fraud have sharply diminished since the IFE was founded in the 1990s.
Many Mexicans, however, have a hard time discarding conspiracy theories.
"It's very suspicious," said Miguel Angel Bobadilla, a 33-year-old orange juice seller in Mexico City who voted for Lopez Obrador. "It has been three days since the election and they still haven't declared a winner."
The silver-haired former mayor of Mexico City has inspired passionate support with his promises to lift millions of Mexicans out of poverty, and throughout his political career has successfully rallied supporters to participate in massive marches.
He has not called for any demonstrations since the election, although there were some scattered, peaceful protests supporting him on Tuesday.
"I voted because I believed in democracy in this country. But it's a fraud," said Angelica Lopez, 41, who was shouting slogans in favor of Lopez Obrador.
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