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Troop withdrawal may start next spring

The US and Britain are planning a phased withdrawal of their military forces from Iraq as soon as a permanent government is installed in Baghdad, the Times newspaper reported yesterday.

In a dispatch from the Iraqi capital ahead of Thursday's parliamentary elections, it said British and US officials view the end of Iraq's transitional period as the "green light" to begin withdrawing troops as early as next March.

"One of the first things we will talk about [with the new Iraqi government] is the phased transfer of security, particularly in cities and provinces," it quoted a senior Western diplomat in Baghdad as saying.

"It will happen progressively over the next year," it reported.

The US has more than 160,000 troops in central and northern Iraq, while Britain has about 8,000 in four southern provinces. The two nations invaded in March 2003 to overthrow former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein's dictatorship.

The Times said "contingency plans" were in place for British units in Dhiqar and Muthana provinces to go as early as spring next year, followed by those in the most restive province of Misan.

The US is meanwhile "planning to pull out 30,000 [troops] by the new year" and reduce their presence to below 100,000 personnel "in the coming months," it said, without giving a source.

Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari told the Times that a hasty withdrawal could hurl his country into more violence.

"Those who advocate an early withdrawal do not know what is at stake," he said. "The huge investment in blood and money sacrificed by the US could be squandered. This is the time for patience. We do not need to panic."

In a BBC television interview, Major General Jim Dutton, commander of the British-led multinational division based in the main southern city of Basra, said the sooner coalition troops leave, "in many ways the better."

"We wish to get out of this country as soon as possible when we have put in place the conditions that allow the Iraqis to continue to develop ... Certainly we are aiming to do it as soon as possible," he told the Newsnight program.

"Given what I know today and what I think is going to happen, six months is not an unrealistic timescale to start talking about withdraw [sic] of troops from some areas."

But he added: "We have got to be sure -- and the Iraqis wouldn't want to do it too quickly. Certainly the Iraqi security forces wouldn't want to."
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