A top UN public health expert warned that a new influenza pandemic is expected at any time and could kill anywhere between 5 million and 150 million people -- depending on action taken now to control the bird flu epidemic sweeping through Asia.
Dr. David Nabarro of the World Health Organization (WHO) called on governments to take immediate steps to address the threat at a news conference following his appointment as the new UN coordinator to lead a global drive to counter a human flu pandemic.
"We expect the next influenza pandemic to come at any time now, and it's likely to be caused by a mutant of the virus that is currently causing bird flu in Asia," he said on Thursday.
PHOTO: EPA
The H5N1 strain of bird flu has swept through poultry populations in Asia since 2003, infecting humans and killing at least 65 people, mostly poultry workers, and resulting in the deaths of tens of millions of birds. The virus does not pass from person to person easily, but experts believe this could change if the virus mutates.
Nabarro said with the almost certainty of another influenza pandemic soon, and with experts saying there is a high likelihood of the H5N1 virus mutating, it would be "extremely wrong" to ignore the serious possibility of a global outbreak.
"I believe the work we're doing over the next few months on prevention and preparedness will make the difference between, for example, whether the next pandemic leads us in the direction of 150 million or in the direction of 5 million," he said.
"So our effectiveness will be directly measured in lives saved and the consequences for the world," Nabarro said.
In related news, Southeast Asian nations approved the creation of a regional fund to fight bird flu and other animal diseases, officials said yesterday.
They said ASEAN will also endorse a global plan to contain avian influenza, which has affected four Asian countries since late 2003 and led to an estimated US$15 billion in losses for the poultry trade.
"The creation of the animal health trust fund has been approved," Philippine Agriculture Secretary Domingo Panganiban said by telephone from Tagaytay, a resort city south of Manila where ASEAN agriculture ministers were meeting.
The fund would also be used to prevent the spread of other illnesses affecting animals such as foot-and-mouth disease and hog cholera, other officials have said.
Experts say a lack of funds is hampering the fight against bird flu in Asian countries such as Indonesia, where a fifth victim died on Monday.
Philippine Agriculture Undersecretary Segfredo Serrano said ASEAN would also endorse the global bird flu plan proposed by the world animal health body OIE, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the WHO.
The three agencies plan to hold a bird flu conference in December to try to raise the US$102 million they say is needed over the next three years to contain the virus.
The proposed program needed the endorsement of ASEAN to give it credibility among donor countries and multilateral agencies, Subhash Morzaria, chief technical adviser of the FAO in Asia and the Pacific, told reporters on Thursday.
The money will be used to help affected countries and fund research, training of personnel and campaigns against bird flu.
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