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South Africa dramatically revises its HIV estimate

Three-year-old Nomsa, infected with AIDS, eats spaghetti in Cotlands Baby Sanctuary for abused, abandoned and HIV-positive children in Johannesburg last year. PHOTO: AFP

More than 6.2 million of South Africa's 47 million people may be HIV-positive, a dramatic increase from last year's estimate.

The department of health on Monday said that between 6.29 and 6.57 million South Africans are infected with the HIV virus.

The figures contradict a study by Statistics South Africa, a state agency, which estimated in May that about 4.5 million South Africans were infected with HIV. That figure put South Africa behind India as the country with the highest number of infections.

The latest statistics come from a study last year of women at prenatal clinics. According to blood tests on the women, 29.5 percent were HIV-positive, up from 27.9 percent in 2003.

The infection rate was as high as 40 percent among pregnant women in KwaZulu-Natal, the worst-affected province.

The health department acknowledged that its latest estimates assume that HIV prevalence among pregnant women visiting prenatal clinics was the same as for all women between the ages of 15 and 49.

"Is it any wonder the public is confused?"

Rob Dorrington, head of the center for actuarial science at the University of Cape Town

Surveys of pregnant women visiting health clinics are the basis for most estimates of HIV prevalence in Africa, home to more than 25 million of the estimated 39 million people infected with HIV worldwide.

But the method has been criticized by some African countries for exaggerating the spread of HIV/Aids on the continent.

South African President Thabo Mbeki has questioned the severity of the HIV/Aids crisis in the country, saying that it is not as serious as some studies show.

This has infuriated South African health activists, who blame the government's slow response to the disease for increasing the number of Aids deaths in the country.

"Is it any wonder the public is confused when the same government offers estimates that differ by between 2 million and 2.5 million?" said Rob Dorrington, head of the center for actuarial science at the University of Cape Town.
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