Hong Kong's Tsang poised for victory

The front-runner in Hong Kong's leadership race appeared to be cruising to an early victory yesterday as rival candidates struggled to collect enough nominations to get their names listed on the final ballot.

Since Hong Kong doesn't have full democracy, leading candidate Donald Tsang (曾蔭權) doesn't have to win voters' support. The former No. 2-ranking official just needs to impress the 800 members of an election committee that picks the city's leader. And he's widely believed to have already locked in a majority of the panel's votes.

The flamboyant Tsang -- known for his colorful bow ties -- has been so successful in schmoozing the panel that it's likely he'll stand uncontested on July 10 when the committee is scheduled to pick the next leader. That's because his rivals are widely expected to fall short of the 100 nominations they need to get on the final ballot.

Ming Pao Daily News and the South China Morning Post reported yesterday that Tsang already has won 650 nominations -- a tad short of the roughly 700 he needs for an automatic win. He's expected to gather the rest of his nominations by the June 16 deadline.

The people on the election committee come from several different constituencies, industries and interest groups. Some represent the education, social welfare, health care, and legal sectors. Lawmakers also get to vote along with leaders in the religious and business communities.

But the body is dominated by members who are loyal to Beijing and is unlikely to select a leader -- or chief executive -- who might push hard for full democracy -- something China's leadership has opposed. Hong Kongers were also barred from electing their leaders during British rule, which ended in 1997.

Tsang has had good ties with the pro-democracy camp, but it's unlikely he'll risk roiling Beijing with bold political reforms. He's known more for following orders -- a trait that helped him rise through the British ranks and continue to succeed after the handover to China.

A policeman's son without a university degree, Tsang was named financial secretary in 1995, becoming the first ethnic Chinese to hold the job in 150 years of British rule. He was named a knight of the British Empire in the final days of British rule. He was the deputy to Hong Kong's former leader, Tung Chee-hwa (董建華), who quit in March citing failing health. Tsang took over as acting chief executive.

He insisted this weekend that candidates who don't get 100 nominations aren't backed by the public. "It means they don't get the support of the Election Committee and recognition from the Hong Kong people," he said.

Tsang's opponents -- pro-democracy lawmaker Lee Wing-tat and ex-convict legislator Chim Pui-chung -- have criticized the front-runner for refusing to join public debates. They have said this has made the election unfair, and pro-democracy groups planned to hold a protest later yesterday.

Tsang has said he would only debate candidates who have won enough nominations to stand for the final selection on July 10.

Pro-democracy lawmaker Emily Lau (劉慧卿) called the leadership selection a "charade" and "one of the biggest nonevents of the year" because the public had no say and the election committee would obey Beijing and pick Tsang.

"Since Beijing has anointed Mr. Tsang, most members of the election committee have to offer him their support willy nilly," Lau said.

"In this modern age, the Hong Kong people should have the right to elect their government by universal and equal suffrage," she said.